April 19th Macroeconomic Index: China's Q1 Trade Surplus Exceeds $60 Billion, Unemployment Rates Vary by Age Group

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Domestic News

1. State Administration of Foreign Exchange: China's trade surplus in goods and services exceeded USD 60 billion in the first quarter

2. The central bank talks about M2 breaking through 300 trillion yuan: it is not appropriate to make a simple data comparison of the same period and will strengthen the monitoring of capital idling

3. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the unemployment rate by age group in March

4. Zhu Hexin: There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and we will closely observe the effect of the policy and make good use of the reserve policy

International News

1. The United Nations Security Council met to discuss the current situation of UNRWA

2. Japan's food exports to China fell by 33.6%, Japanese media: affected by the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea

3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that Japan and South Korea are concerned about the recent depreciation of their currencies

4. Fed Voting Member Mester: The Fed should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates

Domestic News

1. State Administration of Foreign Exchange: China's trade surplus in goods and services exceeded USD 60 billion in the first quarter

According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on April 18, China's current account surplus continued to remain in a reasonable equilibrium range. According to preliminary statistics, in the first quarter of 2024, China's total trade in goods and services achieved a surplus of more than 60 billion US dollars, which is at a high level in the same period in history.

2. The central bank talks about M2 breaking through 300 trillion yuan: it is not appropriate to make a simple data comparison of the same period and will strengthen the monitoring of capital idling

On April 18, Zou Lan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the current broad money (M2) exceeds 300 trillion yuan, which is a reflection of financial support for the development of the real economy in the past years. At present, China's economic restructuring is accelerating, the economy is becoming lighter, the demand for credit loan has weakened compared with before, and the credit structure has been optimized and upgraded.

3. The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the unemployment rate by age group in March

On April 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the unemployment rate by age group in March. In March, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25-29 excluding school students in urban areas was 7.2 percent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month (6.4 percent in February). In terms of other age groups, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 excluding school students in urban areas nationwide was 15.3%, unchanged from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the labor force aged 30-59 in urban areas, excluding school students, was 4.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

4. Zhu Hexin: There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and we will closely observe the effect of the policy and make good use of the reserve policy

The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference at 2 p.m. on Thursday, April 18, 2024, at which Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Wang Chunying, Deputy Director and Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, introduced the financial operations and foreign exchange receipts and expenditures in the first quarter of 2024 and answered questions from reporters. Zhu Hexin said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that since the beginning of this year, a series of monetary policies made in the early stage are gradually playing a role. There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and the next step will be to closely observe the effect of the policy and the economic recovery and the realization of the target, and make good use of the reserve policy.

International News

1. The United Nations Security Council met to discuss the current situation of UNRWA

On April 17, local time, the United Nations Security Council held a high-level meeting to discuss the current situation of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. China said that UNRWA was the mainstay of humanitarian assistance to Palestine, and that it opposed malicious attacks on UNRWA without any tangible evidence, and even made false accusations against the entire United Nations system for this reason. We urge Israel to immediately cease its attacks and defamation and call on the States concerned to resume funding for the Agency as soon as possible.

2. Japan's food exports to China fell by 33.6%, Japanese media: affected by the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea

According to preliminary trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on the 17th, Japan's import and export trade balance deficit in fiscal year 2023 (March 2023 to April 2024) was 5.89 trillion yen (1 yuan is about 21 yen), a deficit for the third consecutive year. In fiscal 2023, Japan had a surplus of 9.1356 trillion yen with the U.S. and a deficit of 5.9287 trillion yen with China, of which food exports to China fell by 33.6% year-on-year. Japan's news agency said that this was due to the impact of China's complete suspension of imports of Japanese aquatic products after the discharge of nuclear-contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into the sea.

3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that Japan and South Korea are concerned about the recent depreciation of their currencies

U. S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged concerns from the Japanese and South Korean counterparts about a sharp drop in their exchange rates in a joint statement after the first trilateral finance ministers' meeting. Yellen, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok discussed exchange rates on April 17 during the annual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, according to a joint statement. The three sides will "continue to consult closely on foreign exchange market developments in line with our existing G20 commitments, while acknowledging the serious concerns of Japan and South Korea about the recent sharp depreciation of the yen and won," the statement said.

4. Fed Voting Member Mester: The Fed should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates

Cleveland Fed President Mester (2024 FOMC Member): More data needs to be seen in order to determine the path of inflation. We want to be confident in the "downward trajectory of inflation towards 2%". Inflation is expected to come down, but more data is needed to decide whether to cut interest rates. Monetary policy is in a good position and said the central bank is not rushing to cut interest rates. A strong economy and a vibrant labor market give the Fed room to be patient on policy. I still expect inflation to come down, but I do think that there is a need to watch and gather more information before taking action.

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