December 18th Macroeconomic Index: China's Economic Operation Characterized by 'One High, One Low, and Two Flat', New Regulations for Non-Bank Payment Institutions

   Daily Macro Economy News

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Domestic News

1. The relevant responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office explained in detail the spirit of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, saying that China's economic operation this year is characterized by "one high, one low and two flat".

2. Premier Li Qiang signed a decree of the State Council promulgating the Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-bank Payment Institutions, which will come into force on May 1, 2024

3. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council jointly issued the Notice on Supporting the Issuance of Green Bonds by Central Enterprises

4. Economic Daily: Structural tax cuts enhance the momentum of high-quality development

International News

1. The market generally expects the Fed to end the current round of interest rate hike cycle and turn to interest rate cuts next year. A number of analysts said that the Fed's policy pivot may have a significant impact on global capital markets

2. The Japanese government plans to invest 3 trillion yen (about 150 billion yuan) in 15 years to promote the popularization of hydrogen energy

3. The tension in the waters of the Red Sea means that the risk of spillover from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has intensified, which has affected international shipping

4. Connection has been approached by a number of Western leaders about potential negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Domestic News

1. The relevant responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office explained in detail the spirit of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, saying that China's economic operation this year is characterized by "one high, one low and two flat".

The relevant responsible comrades of the Central Finance Office explained in detail the spirit of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference, saying that China's economic operation this year is characterized by "one high, one low and two flat", and the main expected goals are expected to be successfully achieved. Some institutions, experts, and scholars predict that the annual economic growth will be about 5.2 percent, and the GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan. Prudent monetary policies should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. The previous "nominal economic growth rate" should be changed to "the expected target of economic growth and price level," so that the target requirements of economic growth and price level can be better coordinated, and the price level will be emphasized as an important regulation and control target of monetary policy; and the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, and environmental protection policies will be strengthened to ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and a joint force is formed. For example, fiscal policy and monetary policy should be strengthened in terms of the progress of debt reduction, replenishment of bank capital, and issuance of government bonds.

2. Premier Li Qiang signed a decree of the State Council promulgating the Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-bank Payment Institutions, which will come into force on May 1, 2024

Premier Li Qiang signed a decree of the State Council promulgating the Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-bank Payment Institutions, which will come into force on May 1, 2024. Responsible persons of the Ministry of Justice and the People's Bank of China answered reporters' questions on the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non-bank Payment Institutions": The "Regulations" conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Financial Work Conference, put the prevention and resolution of risks, the protection of users' legitimate rights and interests in a prominent position, and better coordinate development and security; first, adhere to licensed operation and strict entry threshold; second, improve payment business rules and strengthen risk management; third, strengthen the protection of users' rights and interests; fourth, increase the punishment of serious violations of laws and regulations in accordance with the law.

3. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council jointly issued the Notice on Supporting the Issuance of Green Bonds by Central Enterprises

Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council jointly issued the "Notice on Supporting the Issuance of Green Bonds by Central Enterprises", aiming to give full play to the important function of the capital market in optimizing the allocation of resources and the leading and exemplary role of green investment of central enterprises. According to the analysis of industry insiders, the "Notice"’s mechanism of improving the green bond financing support is conducive to improving the motivation of central enterprises to issue green bonds. The issuance of green bonds by central enterprises is a specific measure to deepen the reform of the capital market and the organic combination of green and low-carbon transformation, which will help promote the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society.

4. Economic Daily: Structural tax cuts enhance the momentum of high-quality development

"Structural reform" means differentiated focuses. It emphasis on "focusing on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of the manufacturing industry" reflects precise regulation and control, with obvious pertinence and guidance, which is conducive to enhancing new momentum for development and promoting high-quality development. In the next step, on the basis of the implementation of the existing measures, it is worth looking forward to expecting how the structural tax reduction will further support the development of scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing industry. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that "a new round of reform of the fiscal and taxation system should be planned." It is necessary to consider tax reduction and fee reduction in the reform of the tax system, improve the level of institutionalization, optimize the tax structure, and further stabilize market expectations. Through the coordinated efforts of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial and other macroeconomic policies, the economic rebound will be further consolidated and strengthened.

International News

1. The market generally expects the Fed to end the current round of interest rate hike cycle and turn to interest rate cuts next year. A number of analysts said that the Fed's policy pivot may have a significant impact on global capital markets

The Fed is widely expected to end its current rate hike cycle and pivot to rate cuts next year. A number of analysts said that the Fed's policy pivot may have a significant impact on global capital markets. Li Zhao, an analyst at CICC, reviewed the performance of assets before the start of interest rate cuts after the end of the 14 rounds of Fed interest rate hikes over the past 50 years. In terms of median asset returns and win rates, the ranking of asset performance is Treasury bonds, US dollars, commodities, US equities and gold.

2. The Japanese government plans to invest 3 trillion yen (about 150 billion yuan) in 15 years to promote the popularization of hydrogen energy

The Japanese government plans to invest 3 trillion yen (about 150 billion yuan) in 15 years to promote the popularization of hydrogen energy. As of November, there were 161 hydrogen refueling stations in Japan, about one-third of which were concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The investment funds will be used to subsidize the price difference between hydrogen and other fuels due to factors such as production costs.

3. The tension in the waters of the Red Sea means that the risk of spillover from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has intensified, which has affected international shipping

Recently, due to the attack on a number of ships in the Red Sea waters by Yemen's Houthi rebels, four international shipping companies have announced the suspension of navigation in the Red Sea. Since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Houthis have frequently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel on the grounds of "supporting Palestine", and the tension in the Red Sea waters means that the risk of spillover from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has intensified, which has affected international shipping.

4. Connection has been approached by a number of Western leaders about potential negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he had been approached by a number of Western leaders about potential talks to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As long as Moscow's core interests are respected, the Kremlin is open to dialogue. Some Western powers are increasingly interested in a negotiated solution, but he refuses to name any country.

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