December 21st Macroeconomic Index: China Emphasizes Grain Production, Canada Signals Potential Rate Hikes

   Daily Macro Economy News

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Central Rural Work Conference stressed the need to do a good job in the production of grain and important agricultural products, to stabilize the sown area of grain, promoting a large-scale increase in grain yields

2. The State Council conducted the fifth study with the theme of "creating a market-oriented, law-based, international, first-class business environment, and continuously stimulating market vitality and social creativity"

3. The joint communiqué of the 28th regular meeting of the Chinese Premier and the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation was issued

4. It is necessary to establish the concept of big agriculture and big food, and build a diversified food supply system by focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at the same time

International News

1. At the beginning of January next year, the freight cost of many European routes and Mediterranean routes will double compared with the end of December

2. The Bank of Canada said in its December minutes that interest rate hikes have begun to significantly slow economic activity, but risks to the inflation outlook remain, especially from housing, which may hinder the work of bringing inflation down to 2% and may still need to raise interest rates

3. The UK CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year in November, the lowest since September 2021

4. Brazil enacted a tax system reform bill

Domestic News

1. The Central Rural Work Conference stressed the need to do a good job in the production of grain and important agricultural products, to stabilize the sown area of grain, promoting a large-scale increase in grain yields

The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized that we should do a good job in the production of grain and important agricultural products, stabilize the grain sowing area, promote a large-scale increase in grain yield, consolidate the results of soybean expansion, explore the establishment of an inter-provincial horizontal interest compensation mechanism in grain production and marketing areas, do a good job in agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, and ensure that the grain output will remain above 1.3 trillion jin in 2024; support the construction of agricultural science and technology innovation platforms, accelerate the revitalization of the seed industry; adapt to the trend of rural population changes, optimize the village layout, industrial structure, public service allocation, and achieve the solid and orderly promotion of rural construction, the in-depth implementation of the rural living environment improvement and improvement actions, and the promotion of rural infrastructure to make up for shortcomings.

2. The State Council conducted the fifth study with the theme of "creating a market-oriented, law-based, international, first-class business environment, and continuously stimulating market vitality and social creativity"

With the theme of "creating a market-oriented, law-based, international, first-class business environment, and continuously stimulating market vitality and social creativity", the State Council conducted the fifth theme study. The leaders of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to further enhance the level of marketization around better maintaining fair competition, support the development and growth of enterprises of all types of ownership without discrimination, speed up the construction of a unified national market, intensify efforts to clean up and abolish the regulations and practices that hinder the unified market and fair competition, and effectively ensure that enterprises of all types of ownership participate in fair competition. It’s necessary to rely on the national integrated government service platform to promote the normalization of government service efficiency, further improve the mechanism, optimize the process, improve online and offline service channels, make full use of new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence, and continuously improve the standardization, standardization and facilitation of government services.

3. The joint communiqué of the 28th regular meeting of the Chinese Premier and the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation was issued

The joint communiqué of the 28th regular meeting of the Chinese Premier and the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation was issued, and the two sides agreed to continue to expand the scale of bilateral trade, optimize the trade structure, cultivate new growth points such as digital trade, low-carbon sustainability, and biomedicine, further improve the level of trade facilitation, jointly ensure the safety and stability of industrial and supply chains, and promote the high-quality development of bilateral trade; further expand the use of RMB and RUB in bilateral trade, investment, loans and other economic and trade exchanges; and support enterprises of the two countries to promote oil and gas, coal, electricity power and other energy cooperation projects, solidly promote the interconnection of energy infrastructure, and jointly ensure the safe and stable operation of cross-border energy corridors.

4. It is necessary to establish the concept of big agriculture and big food, and build a diversified food supply system by focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at the same time

Central Rural Work Conference: Concentrate efforts on doing a good job of doing a number of practical things that can be felt by the masses. It is necessary to fully implement the same responsibility of the party and government for food security, and insist on stabilizing the area and increasing yield. It is necessary to establish the concept of big agriculture and big food, develop agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at the same time, and build a diversified food supply system. It is necessary to guard the lifeblood of cultivated land, resolutely rectify the illegal acts of indiscriminate occupation and destruction of cultivated land, increase investment in the construction and management and protection of high-standard farmland, and ensure that the quantity and quality of cultivated land are guaranteed.

International News

1. At the beginning of January next year, the freight cost of many European routes and Mediterranean routes will double compared with the end of December

Affected by the situation in the Red Sea, some ships of many shipping companies have chosen to detour to the Cape of Good Hope, and the freight rate has been rising. Recently, a number of freight forwarding companies said that they have received a number of shipping companies to update the spot market freight report, early January next year for a number of European routes and Mediterranean routes, compared with the end of December has doubled.

2. The Bank of Canada said in its December minutes that interest rate hikes have begun to significantly slow economic activity, but risks to the inflation outlook remain, especially from housing, which may hinder the work of bringing inflation down to 2% and may still need to raise interest rates

The Bank of Canada said in its December minutes that rate hikes have begun to slow economic activity significantly, but risks to the inflation outlook remain, particularly from housing, which could hinder the work of bringing inflation down to 2% and may still need to raise interest rates. There is not enough data for them to believe that inflation will continue to fall to 2% in a sustainable way. Since the meeting on December 6, when interest rates were kept unchanged, the bank's chief and vice presidents have said that it is too early to consider cutting interest rates, trying to overturn market expectations for a rate cut to start in early 2024.

3. The UK CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year in November, the lowest since September 2021

UK CPI rose 3.9% year-on-year in November, the lowest since September 2021, with an expected increase of 4.4% and a previous increase of 4.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and an expected increase of 0.1%, and the previous value was flat. The UK retail price index rose by 5.3% year-on-year in November, with an expected increase of 5.7% and a previous increase of 6.1%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous decrease of 0.2%.

4. Brazil enacted a tax system reform bill

On December 20 at local time, the Brazilian Congress convened a meeting to promulgate the Constitutional Amendment No. 132 of 2023 on tax reform, which was attended by Brazilian President Lula, Finance Minister Fernando Ada, Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco and Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Arthur Lilla and other dignitaries. The tax reform regulation also increases import taxes on electric vehicles and gives some tax incentives to manufacturers of gasoline vehicles in the Northeast and Midwest.

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