December 24 Macroeconomic Index:Changes in India’s oil import sources, US and European economic indicators and energy agreement concerns

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Domestic News

1. The National Development and Reform Commission further standardized the order and norms of coal resource exploration and development

2. Optimize the layout of non-ferrous metal production capacity, and make strict access for the added non-ferrous metal projects

3. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Special Administrative Measures for Investment in the Central Budget for Water Conservancy"

4. Ministry of Transport: Last week, the national railway transported a total of 79.95 million tons of goods, down 2.04% from the previous month

5. The National Domestic and Foreign Trade Integration Pilot Work Promotion Conference was held in Beijing

 International News

1. India's Middle East oil imports hit a record high in November, and Russia's share of oil fell to its lowest in three quarters

2. US inflation data came in lower than expected. Oil prices edged up, but demand concerns remain

3. The expiration of the Russian-Ukrainian gas transit agreement attracts attention, and Putin talks with the Prime Minister of Slovakia

4. The UK's GDP did not grow in the third quarter, and economic risks have increased

5. The Fed is likely to skip a rate cut in January

Domestic News

1. The National Development and Reform Commission further standardized the order and norms of coal resource exploration and development

The "Provisions on the Management of the Overall Planning of Coal Mining Areas" has been deliberated and adopted at the 19th committee meeting on December 2, 2024, and is hereby promulgated to take effect on February 1, 2025. It is proposed that the overall planning of coal mining areas with a total planned scale of more than 10 million tons/year shall be reviewed by the overall planning and management department of the provincial coal mining area where the mining area is located, together with the provincial coal industry management and other departments, and submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission for approval. (National Development and Reform Commission)

2. Optimize the layout of non-ferrous metal production capacity, and make strict access for the added non-ferrous metal projects

Notice of the People's Government of Guangdong Province on Printing and Distributing the Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Guangdong Province from 2024 to 2025. It is mentioned that the layout of non-ferrous metal production capacity will be optimized. Strictly implement the replacement of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, strictly control the new smelting capacity of copper and alumina, and rationally deploy the new production capacity of silicon, lithium, magnesium and other industries. Vigorously develop the recycled metal industry. By the end of 2025, the supply of recycled metals will account for more than 24%. Achieve strict access to new non-ferrous metal projects. New construction, reconstruction and expansion of electrolytic aluminum projects must reach the energy efficiency benchmark level and environmental performance level A level, and the energy efficiency of new construction, reconstruction and expansion of alumina projects must reach the advanced value of the mandatory energy consumption quota standard. The energy efficiency of new polysilicon and lithium battery cathode and anode projects must reach the advanced level in the industry. (Guangdong Provincial People's Government)

3. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Special Administrative Measures for Investment in the Central Budget for Water Conservancy"

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the Measures for the Special Management of Investment in the Central Budget for Water Conservancy, which mentions that the key areas of support include the construction of flood storage and detention areas, the reinforcement of reservoirs at risk, and the reinforcement of large and medium-sized sluices. For the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, 60%, 70%, 80% and 80% of the project investment will be supported respectively. In accordance with the total investment base of 5 million yuan for small (1) type and 2 million yuan for small (2) type, the investment in the central budget will be bundled and distributed by the province, and the local government will make overall arrangements for use. Including soil and water conservation, key water ecological treatment projects, etc. For the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, 40%, 50%, 70% and 70% of the project investment will be supported respectively. The construction content does not include water pollution control, water landscape construction, etc.

4. Ministry of Transport: Last week, the national railway transported a total of 79.95 million tons of goods, down 2.04% from the previous month

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics Guarantee and Smooth Work of the State Council, from December 16th to December 22nd, the national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner, including: the national railway transported a total of 79.95 million tons of goods, down 2.04% from the previous month; The cumulative number of trucks on highways nationwide was 55.792 million, an increase of 0.51% month-on-month; The cumulative cargo throughput of the monitored ports was 260.225 million tons, an increase of 1.29% month-on-month, and the container throughput was 5.815 million TEUs, a decrease of 5.19% month-on-month; Civil aviation has guaranteed a total of 115,000 flights (including 5,154 cargo flights, including 3,391 international cargo flights and 1,763 domestic cargo flights), an increase of 0.99% month-on-month; The cumulative volume of postal express delivery was about 4.057 billion pieces, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous month; The cumulative delivery volume was about 4.091 billion pieces, an increase of 0.39% month-on-month.

5. The National Domestic and Foreign Trade Integration Pilot Work Promotion Conference was held in Beijing

On December 13, the National Domestic and Foreign Trade Integration Pilot Work Promotion Conference was held in Beijing. Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. The meeting emphasized that 2025 is the final year of the pilot project of domestic and foreign trade integration, and efforts will be made to promote a number of institutional and mechanism reform measures, accelerate the construction of a number of domestic and foreign trade integration development platforms, improve the level of domestic and foreign trade integration in key industries, continue to improve the domestic and foreign trade integration work system, and strive to achieve more pilot results. (Ministry of Commerce)

International News

1. India's Middle East oil imports hit a record high in November, and Russia's share of oil fell to its lowest in three quarters

India's crude oil imports in November showed that oil imports from the Middle East reached their highest level in nine months, while Russian oil's share of India's imports fell to its lowest level in three quarters. Despite the problems caused by sanctions aimed at cutting Moscow's funding for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India's refiners have been buying large quantities of cheaper Russian oil. India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, imported Russian oil in November reduced by 13% from October to 1.52 million barrels per day, accounting for about 32% of India's total imports, the data showed. Some refiners have reduced imports of Russian oil due to plant maintenance and overhauls, while continuing to extract established amounts of oil under annual contracts with Middle Eastern producers, an Indian refining industry official said.

2. US inflation data came in lower than expected. Oil prices edged up, but demand concerns remain

Oil prices edged higher after lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data eased fears of a rate cut next year, but concerns about global demand trends continued to weigh on markets. Oil prices are trading in a tight range amid widespread concerns about growing oil demand in Asia and the prospect of oversupply next year, the latest personal consumption expenditures data showed that inflation was not as stubborn as economists had predicted. After President-elect Donald Trump returned to the White House, uncertainty over next year's market development has also triggered an overall cautious mood.

3. The expiration of the Russian-Ukrainian gas transit agreement attracts attention, and Putin talks with the Prime Minister of Slovakia

Russia said on Monday that the situation in European countries that buy Russian gas through the Ukraine transit deal is very complicated and needs more attention, following talks between Putin and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fizo. Ukraine has said it will not renew a five-year transit agreement for Russian gas to Europe, which expires at the end of the year, because Ukraine does not want to support Moscow's military operations. Gas delivered through Ukraine accounts for about half of Russia's total pipeline gas exports to Europe. If the agreement is terminated, Slovakia, Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic will be the most severely affected. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not give more details about the talks between Putin and Fizo on Sunday, which also touched on bilateral relations and the conflict in Ukraine.

4. The UK's GDP did not grow in the third quarter, and economic risks have increased

According to the Office for National Statistics, GDP growth in the third quarter was revised down to 0.0% from 0.1% previously, and growth in the second quarter was revised down to 0.4% from 0.5% previously. The data showed that the UK's economic output failed to grow in the third quarter, adding to the signs of a slowdown in the economy at the beginning of Prime Minister Starmer's tenure. The Bank of England predicted last week that the economy would remain at zero growth in the fourth quarter. But as inflation remains a risk, keep interest rates unchanged. The report said that the UK services sector did not grow in the third quarter. The 0.7% increase in construction industry was offset by a 0.4% decline in production. Sectors such as bars and restaurants, as well as law firms and advertising, witnesses the weakest performers in the third quarter.

5. The Fed is likely to skip a rate cut in January

The US dollar rose as markets continued to bet on a cautious path of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 38 basis points by December 2025. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in the previous week, but signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in the future. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note that the Fed is likely to skip a rate cut in January, which could turn into a prolonged pause in policy easing in 2025.

Domestic Macro Economy Index