December 3 Macroeconomic Index:The expansion of China's manufacturing industry is accelerating, and international energy and trade policies fluctuate

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Domestic News

1. The manufacturing production index and new orders index in November rose to the highest since July 2024 and March 2023 respectively in the expansion range

2. Two Departments issued the "Measures for the Management of Funds for Key Projects in the Field of Transportation" to clarify the scope of capital expenditure for key projects

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to October, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year

4. Changyuan Power: The power generation in November was 3.141 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.50%

5. In November, the transaction volume of the property market in many places hit a new high

 International News

1. The United States intends to impose anti-dumping duties of up to about 271% on photovoltaic products in four Southeast Asian countries

2. Russian manufacturing activity increased slightly in November with supply chain problems

3. Indonesia and Canada signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to focus on cooperation and trade growth in critical minerals

4. Eurozone unemployment remains at record low, and The European Central Bank may consider a 25 basis point rate cut in December

5. European natural gas prices hit a new high this year, and supply concerns intensified

Domestic News

1. The manufacturing production index and new orders index in November rose to the highest since July 2024 and March 2023 respectively in the expansion range

Judging from the sub-data of Caixin China's manufacturing PMI, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry have both accelerated. In November, the manufacturing production index and new orders index rose to the highest since July 2024 and March 2023, respectively, in the expansion range. Respondents said that factors such as improved demand fundamentals and new product launches supported the growth of new orders. External demand, which had contracted before, also began to pick up, and the new export orders index rebounded above the critical point in November, hitting a new high in nearly seven months. Enterprises reported that the growth of export orders in the month was mainly concentrated in investment categories and intermediate categories, and the export orders of consumer goods decreased slightly. (Caixin)

2. Two Departments issued the "Measures for the Management of Funds for Key Projects in the Field of Transportation" to clarify the scope of capital expenditure for key projects

The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport have studied and formulated the Measures for the Management of Funds for Key Projects in the Field of Transportation. The scope of expenditure of key project funds includes: (1) expenditure on national highways and ordinary national highways; (B) national port highway expenditures; (3) Expenditures for high-grade inland waterways (excluding the main line of the Yangtze River); (4) Expenditure on public infrastructure in coastal ports; (5) Expenditure on the integrated development of comprehensive transportation; (6) Expenditures for emergency support for transportation safety; (7) Expenditure on intelligent and digital informatization of transportation; (8) Other transportation expenditures approved by the Party Central Committee and the State Council.

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to October, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the operation of the textile industry from January to October 2024, with steady growth in the production situation and continuous improvement in efficiency. From January to October, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and the operating income was 4,012.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; The total profit was 133.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. The yarn output of textile enterprises above designated size decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the output of cloth, clothing and chemical fiber increased by 2.0%, 4.4% and 9.1% year-on-year respectively.

4. Changyuan Power: The power generation in November was 3.141 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.50%

Changyuan Power announced that in November 2024, the company completed power generation of 3.141 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 15.50%. Among them, thermal power generation increased by 18.21% year-on-year, hydropower power generation decreased by 74.00% year-on-year, and new energy power generation increased by 47.11% year-on-year. From January to November 2024, the cumulative power generation capacity was 36.098 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 23.04%. Among them, the cumulative power generation of thermal power increased by 24.94% year-on-year, the cumulative power generation of hydropower decreased by 30.18% year-on-year, and the cumulative power generation of new energy increased by 54.59% year-on-year.

5. In November, the transaction volume of the property market in many places hit a new high

In November, the property market sales ended, and the sales data of many hot cities were eye-catching, and the "Golden Nov." reappeared after the "Golden Oct.". Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places in November second-hand housing transaction volume hit a new high in the year, of which, Shenzhen's second-hand housing transaction volume in November hit a new high in nearly 46 months. In addition to the rebound in November, some hot spots saw a "good start" in December. According to the official website of the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, on December 1, 206 new houses in Beijing were signed online, with an area of 16,494.97 square meters, including 119 residential houses with an area of 13,771.91 square meters. In addition to the rebound in November, some hot spots saw a "good start" in December. (CSI Taurus)

International News

1. The United States intends to impose anti-dumping duties of up to about 271% on photovoltaic products in four Southeast Asian countries

The U.S. Department of Commerce recently announced that it intends to impose anti-dumping duties of up to about 271% on photovoltaic products from relevant countries on the grounds that solar products from Southeast Asia are sold in the United States at prices lower than the cost of production. This plan has been questioned by the media and people from relevant countries. According to the preliminary determination made by the U.S. Department of Commerce after investigation, the proposed anti-dumping duties involve crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and their modules import from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, depending on the company. U.S. solar cells and modules are mainly imported from these countries, accounting for about 80% of U.S. imports of such products. Joseph Matthews, a senior professor at Beltai International University in Cambodia, said that imposing anti-dumping duties on products from ASEAN countries is illogical and will not bring the domestic industry back to life, and will also make American importers and American consumers bear higher costs and losses. (CCTV News)

2. Russian manufacturing activity increased slightly in November with supply chain problems

A business survey on Monday showed that Russian manufacturing activity rose slightly in November, helped by new increases in output and new orders, despite shrinking backlogs and companies cutting back on headcount. Russia's S&P Global PMI rose to 51.3 from 50.6 in October, further above the 50 line, which separates expansion and contraction. Since Russia launched its special military operation against Ukraine in February 2022, its huge spending on the production of military equipment and weapons has boosted the manufacturing sector. However, S&P said: "Supply chain issues persist as higher supplier prices and unfavorable exchange rate movements push up costs, according to companies surveyed. ”

3. Indonesia and Canada signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to focus on cooperation and trade growth in critical minerals

According to foreign media reports, Indonesia and Canada signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement on Monday, which will enter into force in 2026 and was signed in Jakarta by the trade Ministers of the two countries. Indonesia's Minister of Trade, Budi Santoso, said Indonesia is grateful for Canada's support for its plan to prioritize the development of the critical minerals sector, which is critical to Indonesia's sustainable growth. Indonesia is rich in mineral resources such as tin, copper, bauxite, etc., and is the world's largest source of nickel ore. The country is trying to extract more value from its mineral resources by attracting investment in its processing and in the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries. According to the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, bilateral trade between Indonesia and Canada stood at $3.4 billion last year.

4. Eurozone unemployment remains at record low, and The European Central Bank may consider a 25 basis point rate cut in December

Eurozone unemployment remains at record lows, raising the likelihood that the ECB will remain cautious when considering how quickly to cut interest rates. The eurozone unemployment rate was 6.3% in October, marking the third consecutive month of steady unemployment and continuing to remain at its lowest level on record, suggesting that the eurozone is achieving a soft landing from the inflation crisis of recent years and the interest rate hikes used to curb soaring prices. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again at its policy meeting later this month. The magnitude of the rate cut remains uncertain, but the persistently low unemployment rate will strengthen expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut instead of a 50 basis point cut.

5. European natural gas prices hit a new high this year, and supply concerns intensified

European natural gas prices surged to their highest level this year, topping €49/MWh, as the rapid depletion of storage sparked supply concerns. As of last Saturday, the EU's gas storage level was 85.47%, below the five-year average. ING analysts said that lower-than-expected storages, coupled with the possibility that Russian pipeline gas delivered through Ukraine could stop supplying by the end of the year, is a concern for the market. While we believe the supply and demand situation will remain relatively satisfactory by the end of the 2024/25 heating season, the task of replenishing stocks in the region in the summer of 2025 will be even more daunting.

Domestic Macro Economy Index