December 31 Macroeconomic Index:Policies support the development of agriculture and retail industries, and global markets respond to climate change and geopolitical challenges

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Domestic News

1. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Support the relevant central enterprises to further improve and strengthen the production, processing, trade and storage of grain and important agricultural products

2. The Ministry of Commerce held a video conference on the promotion of retail innovation and upgrading projects

3. Pan Gongsheng: Increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improve the accuracy of monetary policy control

4. From January 1 next year, the interest rate of the provident fund loan for Beijing's stock housing will be reduced

5. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments: Support eligible data industry projects, and encourage "early and small investment"

 International News

1. US natural gas prices have risen sharply due to cold weather

2. Iranian Foreign Minister meets with Omani Foreign Minister to discuss the situation in the region

3. The President of the Philippines signed the 2025 National Budget. The defense budget has been significantly increased.

4. The central bank lowered the daily reference exchange rate. The Vietnamese dong fell to a record low

5. Germany's major stock indexes ended their best two-year rally since 2013

Domestic News

1. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Support the relevant central enterprises to further improve and strengthen the production, processing, trade and storage of grain and important agricultural products

On December 30, the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held an enlarged meeting. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to focus on agricultural science and technology, accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas such as biological breeding and agricultural machinery and equipment, and promote the transformation and promotion of scientific research achievements. It is necessary to focus on ensuring national food security, support relevant central enterprises in the production, processing, trade, and storage of grain and important agricultural products to further improve and strengthen, deepen and work hard, and effectively enhance the foundation and ability to ensure national food security. It is necessary to focus on high-quality development, guide and support agriculture-related central enterprises to explore the market opportunities contained in the "three rural" fields, accelerate the adjustment and optimization of industrial layout, concentrate resources to build advantageous industrial clusters, and play a greater role in building an agricultural power.

2. The Ministry of Commerce held a video conference on the promotion of retail innovation and upgrading projects

On December 30, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce held a video conference on the promotion of the retail industry innovation and promotion project, and deployed and implemented the "Implementation Plan for the Retail Industry Innovation and Upgrading Project" of seven departments to promote the high-quality development of the retail industry. The meeting emphasized that by 2029, the goal is to initially form a modern retail system with rich supply, balanced layout, diversified channels, high-quality services, smart and convenient, green and low-carbon, and strive to build the retail industry into a channel carrier for expanding consumption, a key support for ensuring people's livelihood, a display window for new consumption scenarios, and a reservoir for absorbing employment. To implement the innovation and upgrading project of the retail industry, it is necessary to focus on promoting the dual improvement of hard facilities and soft environment, the dual guarantee of good goods and good services, the dual integration of digitalization and physical stores, the dual promotion of expanding consumption and benefiting people's livelihood, and the optimization of cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

3. Pan Gongsheng: Increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and improve the accuracy of monetary policy control

Since the beginning of this year, the policy adjustment has been not small, how much space is there in the future? "After the implementation of the RRR reduction policy, the average reserve ratio of the banking industry is about 6.6%, which is still a certain amount of room compared with the central banks of major international economies." Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said. Talking about the next policy considerations, Pan Gongsheng said: "Increase the intensity of monetary policy control, improve the accuracy of monetary policy control, effectively implement the stock policy, and strengthen the implementation of incremental policies." ”

4. From January 1 next year, the interest rate of the provident fund loan for Beijing's stock housing will be reduced

On December 30, the reporter learned from the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center that from January 1, 2025, the interest rate on Beijing's existing provident fund loans will be reduced. The stock housing loan refers to the personal housing loan of the housing provident fund issued before May 18, 2024, which will start from January 1, 2025 and will be adjusted according to the corresponding first and second set of interest rates. It is worth noting that the interest rate of the housing provident fund loan for stock housing in Beijing will be automatically adjusted from January 1, 2025, and there is no need to apply manually.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments: Support eligible data industry projects, and encourage "early and small investment"

The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued guidance on promoting the high-quality development of the data industry, and increased fiscal and financial support. Use relevant funds such as investment in the central budget to support qualified data industry projects. Encourage "early investment and small investment", give full play to the role of existing government investment funds, support the establishment of data industry investment guidance sub-funds in localities with the capacity, cultivate professional investment institutions in the field of data, and promote the high-quality development of the data industry. Encourage localities to establish data enterprise cultivation databases, and strengthen investment and financing cooperation and connection. Under the premise of compliance with laws and regulations and controllable risks, guide financial institutions to innovate financial products that meet the characteristics of data enterprise development.

International News

1. US natural gas prices have risen sharply due to cold weather

US natural gas futures prices rose sharply as weather forecasts showed severe cold weather in the first half of January boosting demand. TP ICAP's Scott Shelton said in a report that the weather in the eastern and Midwest of the United States will be very cold over the next 15 days, and there are signs that this cold will continue. Given that diesel prices in the Northeast are likely to be around $17 per MMBtu, additional consumer demand for diesel is likely to be seen. COMEX natural gas rose 15% to $3.897/MMBtu.

2. Iranian Foreign Minister meets with Omani Foreign Minister to discuss the situation in the region

On December 30, local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghzi met with visiting Omani Foreign Minister Badr in Tehran, the capital, to hold talks on bilateral relations and regional situations. At a press conference after the meeting, Araghzi said that the two sides had in-depth discussions on the situation in Syria and agreed to safeguard Syria's territorial integrity, respect all ethnic groups and religions, and establish an inclusive government. Badr said that both sides stressed the importance of safeguarding Syria's independence, territorial and sovereign integrity. The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in Yemen, condemned the joint military action launched by the United States and Israel against Yemen, and stressed the importance of maintaining Yemen's unity and territorial integrity. In addition, both parties hope that the ceasefire talks in Gaza will resume. (CCTV News)

3. The President of the Philippines signed the 2025 National Budget. The defense budget has been significantly increased.

On December 30, local time, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos signed the 2025 national budget, which totals 6.326 trillion pesos. This amount is a reduction from the previously proposed 6.352 trillion pesos, but a significant increase compared to 5.768 trillion pesos in 2024. It is reported that the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Works and Highways, and the Ministry of Defense are among the top three in terms of budget amounts. Among them, the budget of the Ministry of Defense reached 315.1 billion pesos, a significant increase compared to 240.6 billion pesos in 2024.

4. The central bank lowered the daily reference exchange rate. The Vietnamese dong fell to a record low

The central bank of Vietnam today lowered its daily reference rate to an all-time low of 24,327 VND per US dollar (the Vietnamese dong is allowed to fluctuate 5% above and below the reference rate), after which the Vietnamese dong fell to 25,479 VND per US dollar, surpassing the record low set in May, data compiled by the agency showed. Emerging market currencies are under pressure after Trump's victory boosted the dollar, with trade-dependent countries being particularly vulnerable to concerns about U.S. tariffs. In addition, the hawkish Fed is also boosting the strength of the dollar. Vietnam's central bank reiterated last month that it was willing to sell dollars to keep the VND stable.

5. Germany's major stock indexes ended their best two-year rally since 2013

Germany's DAX ended its biggest two-year winning streak since 2013. However, while the export-oriented index has under-performed the S&P 500 in 2024, it has far outperformed European stock index, including the UK's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40. At a time when the German economy is facing challenges, expectations of a healthy global economy have supported the German stock market. As investors seek tech stocks, SAP SE is the largest contributor to the continued rally in 2024, accounting for nearly one-third of the index's rise. Strategists now expect the DAX to rise more modestly in the coming year, according to a survey. A key focus will be Germany's national elections in February, which are likely to divert more fiscal spending to prop up the fragile domestic economy.

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