December 9 Macroeconomic Index:Domestic transportation energy breakthroughs, international oil price fluctuations and geopolitical adjustments

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International Crude Price Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. From January to November this year, Shanghai port carried exceeded 33.1 million people, an increase of more than 91% year-on-year

2. China's installed offshore wind power capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years

3. The review power of local government special bond projects or the pilot delegation to the provincial level is expected to be implemented in 12 provinces

4. Ministry of Transport: Actively promote customized passenger transport into railway stations, airports and port passenger stations

5. The State Information Center released the "Reference Framework for the Application Construction and Development of the Artificial Intelligence Industry"

 International News

1. OPEC+ extended the group's overall oil production cut by 3.66 million b/d until the end of 2026

2. Bank of America has become the largest sterling bull on Wall Street, and the pound is expected to rebound strongly in 2025

3. ING International: Oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range, and the decision of OPEC+ is difficult to boost market confidence

4. The debt risk premium of France fell to a two-week low

5. The final agreement text of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025 was announced, and the Biosecurity Act was not included

Domestic News

1. From January to November this year, Shanghai port carried exceeded 33.1 million people, an increase of more than 91% year-on-year

On December 6, the reporter learned from the Shanghai Border Inspection Station that from January to November this year, the Shanghai Border Inspection Station inspected 247,000 entry and exit (port) transport vehicles at Shanghai Port, and inspected more than 33.1 million entry and exit personnel, an increase of 43.6% and 91.3% respectively over the same period last year. (surging)

2. China's installed offshore wind power capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years

The reporter learned from the 2024 Shantou International Wind Power Technology Innovation Conference that China's wind power field continues to innovate innovating. China is already the world's largest wind power equipment manufacturing base, the wind power turbines accounting for 64% of the global market; for gearbox, about 80%; for generator, about 73%. In 2023, six Chinese wind turbine manufacturers ranked among the top 10 in the world, with a market share of more than 50%, undoubtedly "leading" the global wind power industry. The latest data also shows that the cumulative installed capacity of the world is 1 billion kilowatts, and China's installed wind power capacity is already 50% of the world's installed wind power capacity, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years. (CCTV Finance)

3. The review power of local government special bond projects or the pilot delegation to the provincial level is expected to be implemented in 12 provinces

Local government special bond projects, which have been jointly reviewed by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, may be piloted to give provincial governments the autonomy to review. The reporter recently learned from a number of provincial development and Reform Commissions and the Department of Finance that the pilot project review autonomy of local government on special bond projects may be launched, and it is planned to land in 12 provinces such as Zhejiang and Shandong, and will enter practical operation after the official document is issued. Previously, Liu Sushe, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced a series of new measures to improve the management of local government special bonds at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on October 8, and said that they should be introduced as soon as possible, including "studying and carrying out pilot projects for project review autonomy". (Caixin)

4. Ministry of Transport: Actively promote customized passenger transport into railway stations, airports and port passenger stations

The General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on accelerating the innovation and development of customized shuttle bus passenger services. The notice mentions that the competent departments of transportation in various places should strengthen communication and cooperation with railways, civil aviation and other departments and units, and guide customized passenger transport operators to strengthen cooperation with railway stations, airports, port passenger station operators and station management committees, etc., and open customized passenger lines from surrounding areas to railway stations, airports and port passenger stations, strengthen information sharing at all times, and meet the needs of passengers arriving and departing for interline travel. Encourage bus passenger stations to expand the construction of high-speed rail trackless stations and urban terminals, normalize the opening of customized passenger lines to high-speed rail stations and airports, and vigorously develop passenger intermodal transportation services.

5. The State Information Center released the "Reference Framework for the Application Construction and Development of the Artificial Intelligence Industry"

Recently, the report "Reference Framework for the Application Construction and Development of Artificial Intelligence Industry" researched and compiled by the Public Technical Service Department of the State Information Center was officially released. The report puts forward the common capabilities and characteristic capabilities of the application construction of the artificial intelligence industry from six aspects: computing power foundation, data service, model service, application development, operation and maintenance platform, and operation platform. By building a set of reference architectures with unified technical architecture, unified data specifications, and unified standard systems, we can get rid of the constraints brought about by different enterprise service models, reduce the marginal cost of supply and demand, effectively exert scale effects, promote application innovation, stimulate market vitality, and continue to promote the healthy and efficient development of the industry.

International News

1. OPEC+ extended the group's overall oil production cut by 3.66 million b/d until the end of 2026

OPEC+ extended the group's overall oil production cut by 3.66 million b/d until the end of 2026; Delay the lifting of the 2.2 million b/d voluntary production cuts of the G8 by three months to April next year, and extend the original one-year gradual resumption of production to 18 months; The UAE seeks to gradually increase production by 300,000 b/d from April next year to September 2026.

2. Bank of America has become the largest sterling bull on Wall Street, and the pound is expected to rebound strongly in 2025

Bank of America has become the largest sterling bull on Wall Street, predicting that the pound will rise to its highest level against the euro since 2016 in 2025, and the pound is expected to rise by 8% against the dollar. Bank of America expects GBP/EUR to rise to 1.25, the highest level since the Brexit referendum in 2016, and GBP/USD to 1.38 by the end of 2025. This is due to the fact that the UK economy is growing more strongly compared to the Eurozone, as well as the UK's fiscal stimulus and relatively high interest rates. The British pound is the best performing G10 currency this year outside of the US dollar. In contrast to the recent turmoil in the major economies of the Eurozone, the strength of the pound stems from the political stability after the UK election and the expectation that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at a slower pace than the European Central Bank. Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of G10 FX strategy at BofA Bank, said that the momentum for the strengthening of the pound is still there.

3. ING International: Oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range, and the decision of OPEC+ is difficult to boost market confidence

Oil prices continue to trade in a tight range despite OPEC+'s decision to delay the resumption of production increases, amid growing concerns about weak demand and oversupply. Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said the actions taken by OPEC+ would not be enough to push the market into a supply shortage next year. Slowing demand growth and strong non-OPEC+ supply are expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of next year. The current projected supply surplus is around 500,000 b/d, compared to a previous surplus of 1 million b/d.

4. The debt risk premium of France fell to a two-week low

The risk premium of French government bonds to German government bunds fell to a two-week low on Friday. Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would soon appoint a new Prime Minister so that the 2025 budget would be approved by parliament. Meanwhile, the eurozone benchmark German bund yield is on track for its first weekly gain in more than a month after hitting 2% on Monday. The risk premium of Italian government bonds over German government bonds has also fallen to a three-year low. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the ECB next week and expect the ECB to cut rates aggressively in 2025, which will reduce the debt burden of overleveraged economies.

5. The final agreement text of the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025 was announced, and the Biosecurity Act was not included

On December 7, 2024 local time, the Armed Services Committees of the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States Congress announced the final agreement text of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2025, which takes into account the proposals of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The latest version of the NDAA shows that the Biosafety Act is not included. According to the process, the version must be signed by the President of the United States before it can take effect. It is worth mentioning that on December 6, Beijing time, the Hong Kong stock prices of WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics rose by 9.20% and 5.47% respectively. (Yicai)

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