February 21st Macroeconomic Index: Shanghai Passenger Traffic Surges, UK Property Prices Rise, and EU Wind Power Exceeds Natural Gas

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Domestic News

1.    During the Spring Festival holiday, there were 9,267,600 passengers arriving and departing from Shanghai, 110% of that in 2019

2.    Wang Xiaohong held a meeting with US Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas

3.    National Energy Group: The amount of coal dispatched out of the area during the Spring Festival holiday reached a new high, and the new energy power generation increased by nearly 15%

4.    State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Make greater contributions by state-owned central enterprises in order to promote the sustained economic recovery

International News

1.    UK property prices have risen annually for the first time since August last year

2.    Former Bank Regulator of Japan: The Bank of Japan withdrew from easing policy or changed the banking system structure

3.    Japan and Ukraine held a meeting to promote reconstruction and issued a statement

4.    The wind power generation in the EU firstly exceeds natural gas

Domestic News

1. During the Spring Festival holiday, there were 9,267,600 passengers arriving and departing from Shanghai, 110% of that in 2019

During the Spring Festival holiday, Shanghai's transportation industry made every effort to ensure the Spring Festival transportation, and the overall operation of the hub station was good. The cumulative number of arrivals and departures in Shanghai was 9,267,600, a year-on-year increase of 62% and an increase of 110% over 2019.

2. Wang Xiaohong held a meeting with US Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas

Wang Xiaohong, State Councilor and Minister of Public Security, held a meeting with US Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas in Vienna. Wang Xiaohong said that the two sides should implement the important consensus reached at the San Francisco summit between the two heads of state, uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, and promote anti-drug and law enforcement cooperation between the two countries. Wang Xiaohong called on the US side to respect China's core interests and major concerns, and earnestly resolve issues such as the unwarranted harassment and interrogation of Chinese students in the US, the security of Chinese diplomatic and consular institutions and personnel in the US, and visa restrictions on relevant Chinese institutions and personnel, so as to inject more positive energy into the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations.

3. National Energy Group: The amount of coal dispatched out of the area during the Spring Festival holiday reached a new high, and the new energy power generation increased by nearly 15%

According to the official WeChat news of the National Energy Group, during the Spring Festival, 817 production units of the National Energy Group did not stop work and production, and the main production and operation indicators were completed beyond plan. Coal mines, which were in the safe and orderly production, reached the daily average of 100 trains of purchased coal, and the integrated dispatch and transportation volume hit a new high during the Spring Festival holiday in previous years. The number of available days of coal inventory of power plants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Northeast Mengdong remained at a high level, and the power generation in Northeast China increased by more than 20% year-on-year. In view of the closure of Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port due to heavy fog for many times, timely adjustment of diversion and diversion of ports to stabilize storage, the monthly market share of coal launched in North Port accounted for 44.5%. During the Spring Festival, China Energy Group insisted on clean energy supply, and the power generation of new energy increased by nearly 15%.

4. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Make greater contributions by state-owned central enterprises in order to promote the sustained economic recovery

The Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held an enlarged meeting The meeting believed that state-owned central enterprises should completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, do a solid job in various tasks in 2024, and better play the role of central enterprises in scientific and technological innovation, industrial control and safety support. Coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, guide and promote central enterprises to further highlight value creation, optimize the layout and structural adjustment of state-owned capital, solidly promote high-quality and stable growth, continue to work hard in boosting market confidence and leading the development of the industry, and effectively serve as a stabilizer and ballast stone of the national economy. Fully stimulate the vitality of enterprise development, continue to optimize the allocation of resources, improve the system and mechanism, improve the institutional guarantee, accelerate the implementation of various tasks of the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises, accelerate the construction of modern new state-owned enterprises, and spare no efforts to make new contributions to the Chinese-style modernization.

International News

1. UK property prices have risen annually for the first time since August last year

The annual rate prices for homes for sale in the UK rose for the first time in six months due to stronger buyer demand, according to a survey by property website Rightmove, indicating that the UK property market is stabilising. After a slowdown, the UK property sector has rebounded in recent months as mortgage rates fall and the market expects the Bank of England to cut rates this year. Rightmove said the former agreed sales in the first six weeks of 2024 increased by 16% year-on-year and 3% on 2019, before the pandemic. Tim Bannister, the site's head of science, said he was just cautiously optimistic as mortgage rates remain at historically high levels.

2. Former Bank Regulator of Japan: The Bank of Japan withdrew from easing policy or changed the banking system structure

A former Japanese banking regulator said Japan's exit from ultra-loose monetary policy would mark a shift in the landscape of its banking system, as banks compete for deposits, a move that could trigger a massive shift in capital flows. Tokio Morita, former Vice Minister for International Affairs of the Financial Services Agency of Japan, said that the Bank of Japan is expected to smoothly exit negative interest rates and avoid any sharp policy tightening that could upend the Japanese banking system. But monetary authorities should not underestimate the impact of Japan's escape from decades of ultra-low interest rates, which could lead to significant changes in the behavior of financial institutions, depositors and borrowers. The first task of the authorities is to ensure that the policy shift does not cause a major shock to the market and the financial system. Discussions around how the BoJ's policy shift will affect global money flows will also be important

3. Japan and Ukraine held a meeting to promote reconstruction and issued a statement

According to Japan's Kyodo Network, the governments of Japan and Ukraine issued a joint statement on the 19th in view of the convening of the Japan-Ukraine Economic Reconstruction Promotion Conference. It includes that Japan will provide the long-term support needed to ensure the stability of Ukraine's economy. The statement also agreed that maintaining and strengthening sanctions against Russia is an effective measure to curb Russia's military activities.

4. The wind power generation in the EU firstly exceeds natural gas

Morgan Stanley Research rate strategists said the bank confirmed its neutral view on the dollar, believing that the dollar is affected by both positive and negative factors. While maintaining a neutral stance, the bank maintained its bullish bias towards the US dollar, as the economic team's estimate of US GDP was much higher than the consensus expectation, and the narrative of a renewed acceleration of inflation gained traction in the FX market. Factors such as continued outperformance in US economic growth, the possibility of a Fed tightening bias and the risk of a hard landing are positive for the dollar, but a rebound in European growth expectations from lows and resilient US equities could be negative for the dollar.

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