January 13 Macroeconomic Index:Business work conference leads to expansion of domestic demand, increasing uncertainty in global trade policies

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Domestic News

1. The National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing

2. The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration held the 2025 Regulatory Work Conference

3. Last year, CDB added more than 380 billion yuan to support the transformation of urban villages

4. The upper module of the 400,000-ton ultra-large "offshore oil and gas plant" was completed and delivered

5. The General Administration of Customs has issued 16 key measures to support and accelerate the rise of the central region in new era

 International News

1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: The new round of US sanctions against Russia has brought new challenges to the energy supply in central Europe

2. Slovakia and the EU will set up a working group on gas transit without the participation of Ukraine

3. International Monetary Fund: The global economy faces greater uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy

4. Economist: If Canada fights back against Trump's tariffs, it may be a pyrrhic victory

5. Bank of America: U.S. inflation is expected to rise slightly in December

Domestic News

1. The National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing

From January 11th to 12th, the National Business Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and it is of great significance to do a good job in business work. Adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, further deepen reform in an all-round way, expand high-level opening-up, vigorously boost consumption based on the "three important" positioning of business work, do everything possible to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, deepen international cooperation in the production and supply chain, prevent and resolve risks and external shocks, accelerate the high-quality development of commerce, promote the sustained recovery of the economy, and complete the goals and tasks of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with high quality, so as to lay a solid foundation for the good start of the "15th Five-Year Plan".

2. The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration held the 2025 Regulatory Work Conference

On January 12, the State Administration of Financial Supervision held the 2025 Regulatory Work Conference. The meeting called for effective prevention and resolution of financial risks in key areas. Accelerate the expansion and efficiency of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and support the construction of a new model of real estate development. Actively cooperate in the prevention and resolution of local government debt risks. Closely prevent and combat illegal financial activities; We will make every effort to promote the upward trend of economic operation. Do a good job in the "five big articles" of finance. Support the all-round expansion of domestic demand, help implement consumption boosting actions, and efficiently serve the "two-emphasis" and "two-new". Guide insurance and wealth management funds to support the steady and healthy development of the capital market. Actively serve the development of new quality productive forces, and improve the support policies for early, small, long-term, and hard science and technology. Promote the implementation of the financing coordination mechanism to support small and micro enterprises, and effectively meet the financing needs of enterprises. (Official website of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration)

3. Last year, CDB added more than 380 billion yuan to support the transformation of urban villages

According to the China Development Bank, in 2024, CDB added 381.7 billion yuan of special loans for urban village reconstruction, supporting 723 urban village reconstruction projects in Beijing, Guangzhou, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Wenzhou, Nantong, Ganzhou and other cities. The housing supply structure of these cities has been optimized and people's livelihood has been improved.

4. The upper module of the 400,000-ton ultra-large "offshore oil and gas plant" was completed and delivered

On January 12, 13 upper modules of Petrobras' 400,000-ton P79 FPSO (floating production, storage and offloading) project undertaken by Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. were completed and delivered in Qingdao International High-end Equipment Manufacturing Base, marking a new breakthrough in China's high-end marine energy equipment manufacturing capacity.

5. The General Administration of Customs has issued 16 key measures to support and accelerate the rise of the central region in new era

The General Administration of Customs announced today the introduction of 16 key measures to support and accelerate the rise of the central region in the new era. In the next step, the General Administration of Customs will guide the customs in the central region to give full play to the role of the collaborative and linkage working mechanism, implement 16 key measures, introduce supporting and detailed measures, closely follow the strategic positioning of "three bases and one hub", form a multi-level and all-round coordinated development pattern, and continue to contribute to the high-quality development of the central region.

International News

1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: The new round of US sanctions against Russia has brought new challenges to the energy supply in central Europe

Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said that the new round of US sanctions against Russia has brought new challenges to the energy supply of central European countries, and the Hungarian government will work closely with partners in the region to minimize the increase in fuel prices. Szijjártó said that Serbia plays an important role in the supply of crude oil in central Europe, and the inclusion of Serbian companies in the sanctions list will lead to a sharp increase in crude oil prices. On January 10, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a new round of sanctions on Russia's energy sector, involving the country's two largest oil companies and 183 oil tankers. In addition, the United States announced sanctions against the Serbian Oil Company (NIS), saying that the company is linked to two Russian oil and gas companies.

2. Slovakia and the EU will set up a working group on gas transit without the participation of Ukraine

The European Commission said on January 10 local time that Ukraine will not participate in the high-level working group on gas transit to be established by Slovakia and the European Commission. Slovak Prime Minister Fizo met with EU Energy Commissioner Jorgensen in Brussels on the 9th and discussed with him the transit of natural gas from Russia through Ukraine. Based on the results of the meeting, the European Commission announced the establishment of a high-level task force. According to reports, the working group will begin its work in the coming weeks, focusing on studying all the economic consequences of Ukraine's termination of gas transit, including for Ukraine, exploring and identifying various options, and studying how the EU can help.

3. International Monetary Fund: The global economy faces greater uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Georgieva said that the direction of the new US administration's economic policies, especially trade policy, will bring greater uncertainty to the global economy in 2025. In addition, she talked about the impact of a strong dollar. She said the dollar's strength against both advanced and emerging market currencies could push up funding costs for emerging market economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report in October 2024, expecting global economic growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025. The update content of the report will be released on January 17.

4. Economist: If Canada fights back against Trump's tariffs, it may be a pyrrhic victory

Economists have warned that Canada's plans to retaliate against the United States at a time when President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada pose risks to the domestic economy. Avery, chief economist at Capital Markets at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said Canada would "hit U.S. exporters by causing harm to consumers or businesses using U.S. inputs." Doug Porter, chief economist of capital markets at the Bank of Montreal in Canada, pointed out that although retaliatory tariffs are a measure of last resort, they may exacerbate the economic downturn caused by tariffs.

5. Bank of America: U.S. inflation is expected to rise slightly in December

Following the shocking non-farm payrolls data for December, investors are now turning their attention to the December CPI data, which is scheduled to be released next Wednesday. Bank of America analysts Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner expect headline inflation to reach a five-month high of 2.9% in December, up from 2.7% in November. Core CPI growth is expected to remain at 3.3% for the fourth consecutive month, they said in a note. They argue that inflation "will stagnate this year as the disinflationary tailwinds from improved supply chains and falling commodity prices have receded, and new headwinds may emerge from trade policy."

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