March 5th Macroeconomic Index: China's 5-Year LPR Sees Largest Decline, Futures Market Turnover Up 4.93%

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Domestic News

1. There will be no press conference for the prime minister after the conclusion of the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress this year

2. Ministry of Transport: From February 26 to March 3, the national railway transported a total of 72.672 million tons of goods, an increase of 7.67% month-on-month

3. The 5-year LPR has seen the largest decline in history, and the prepayment phenomenon in Shenzhen has slowed down significantly

4. From January to February, the cumulative turnover of the national futures market increased by 4.93% year-on-year

International News

1. Weaker U.S. economic data drives interest rate cut expectations, and gold price rises sharply

2. Israeli media: Israel boycotts a new round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza

3. France released a list of French military assistance to Ukraine over the past two years

4.The Vice President of the United States calls for an immediate ceasefire in Israel and is pushing for an agreement before Ramadan  

Domestic News

1. There will be no press conference for the prime minister after the conclusion of the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress this year

Lou Qinjian, spokesman for the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress, said that after the conclusion of the Second Session of the 14th National People's Congress this year, no press conference will be held by the premier, and unless there are special circumstances, the current NPC will not hold a press conference for the premier in the next few years

2. Ministry of Transport: From February 26 to March 3, the national railway transported a total of 72.672 million tons of goods, an increase of 7.67% month-on-month

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics Guarantee and Smooth Work of the State Council, from February 26 to March 3, the national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner, with a total of 72.672 million tons of goods transported by the national railway, an increase of 7.67% month-on-month, a total of 46.949 million trucks on the national expressway, an increase of 42.82% month-on-month, a cumulative collection of about 2.871 billion pieces of postal express, an increase of 3.76% month-on-month, and a cumulative delivery volume of about 2.971 billion pieces, an increase of 10.69% month-on-month.

3. The 5-year LPR has seen the largest decline in history, and the prepayment phenomenon in Shenzhen has slowed down significantly

After the LPR was lowered, Shenzhen's mortgage interest rate was also lowered, which has been at a historical low. The reporter learned that at present, in the Shenzhen market, the mainstream first home loan interest rate is 3.85% (LPR-10BP), and the second home loan interest rate is 4.25% (LPR+30BP). The down payment ratio of the first and second homes remains unchanged at 30% and 40%, both of which are at historical lows. Since the 5-year LPR fell by the largest rate in history, the survey found that banks in Shenzhen not only implemented all of them for the first time, but also eased the prepayment phenomenon. For example, a large state-owned bank has restarted the online application channel for prepayment after a long absence.

4. From January to February, the cumulative turnover of the national futures market increased by 4.93% year-on-year

According to the latest statistics from the China Futures Association, the cumulative turnover of the national futures market from January to February was 74.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, and the cumulative turnover was 884 million contracts, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%. Affected by the decrease in the number of trading days during the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading volume of the national futures market in February was 332 million contracts and the turnover was 30.47 trillion yuan, down 38.70% and 25.61% year-on-year respectively. However, in terms of commodities, the trading scale of industrial silicon, eggs and hog futures increased, with a year-on-year increase of 76.19%, 66.07% and 48.45% respectively.

International News

1. Weaker U.S. economic data drives interest rate cut expectations, and gold price rises sharply

Gold prices hovered near a two-month high on Monday as weaker U.S. economic data consolidated expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex, said, "Gold prices rose on Friday as a series of macro data released by the United States led the market to believe that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner than expected." "Gold prices rose about $50 last week, and according to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the gains over the past two sessions have been absolutely all due to weak data on U.S. manufacturing and construction spending, as well as a backdrop of easing inflationary pressures. Meir said the rally could also be due to short covering, as such a large gain in a short period of time suggests that "there may be some bears caught off guard".

2. Israeli media: Israel boycotts a new round of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza

A new round of ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip took place in Cairo, Egypt, on 3 March, with representatives of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and not Israel. According to Israeli media reports, the reason for Israel's boycott of this round of negotiations is that Israel has asked Hamas to hand over the complete list of detainees who are still alive, but it has been refused.

3. France released a list of French military assistance to Ukraine over the past two years

According to the Russian Sputnik news agency, the French Ministry of Defense published on its official website a list of French military assistance to Ukraine over the past two years of the conflict, that is, as of December 31, 2023. "France has provided Ukraine with a total of 2.615 billion euros in military equipment, plus 1.2 billion euros from the European Peace Foundation, for a total of more than 3.8 billion euros in aid from February 24, 2022 to December 12, 2023," the French Ministry of Defense said. "According to the list, France has provided Kyiv with 30 Caesar howitzers, 1,002 AT4 anti-tank rocket launchers, 38 AMX10 RC wheeled tanks, 250 armored transporters, 30,000 rounds of 155-mm shells, 160 reconnaissance drones for two years.

4. The Vice President of the United States calls for an immediate ceasefire in Israel and is pushing for an agreement before Ramadan

According to foreign media reports, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has stepped up pressure on Israel, a key ally, and she urged Gaza to immediately cease fire. Harris's remarks on Sunday were the toughest statements by U.S. government officials to date. At the same time, Washington side is leading the push for a ceasefire agreement ahead of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins in about a week. Special envoys from the United States, Qatar and Hamas will meet in Cairo for the latest round of talks to discuss a proposal for a five-month ceasefire. According to a senior U.S. official, Israel has widely embraced the terms, which will increase the delivery of aid goods and exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But there are still several sticking points that have reportedly remained unresolved, including Hamas's insistence on a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

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