May 15th Macroeconomic Index: Domestic Oil Prices Expected to See Largest Decline of the Year, Fed Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Domestic oil prices are expected to usher in "two consecutive declines" or the largest decline in the year on the 15^th

2. The Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission wrote: There is great potential for energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation and upgrading

3. The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Cost and Certification Center will deploy and train the 2024 cost price survey of city gas industry

4. Ministry of Commerce: Carry out a series of work to promote the high-quality development of the central region

5. China Mutual Finance Association: Promote the in-depth development of digitalization and intelligence of Internet finance

International News

1. It has been rising for more than a month! The futures price of the container transportation index (European line) may still have some upside trend?

2. 1/4 of the imports came from Russia, and Biden signed a ban on Russian uranium

3. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%

4. As the demand for AI energy surges, new regulations on the U.S. power grid will boost power

5.  Agency: The employment situation in the UK weakened in April, but wage pressure remained high

Domestic News

1. Domestic oil prices are expected to usher in "two consecutive declines" or the largest decline in the year on the 15th

Domestic refined oil prices are expected to usher in "two consecutive declines" in the price adjustment window on May 15, when oil prices may witness the biggest decline of the year. According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the eighth working day on May 13, the average price of crude oil varieties referenced in domestic oil price adjustment was 81.73 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -4.88%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be reduced by 235 yuan / ton. According to this range, the price of gasoline and diesel per liter was expected to be reduced by 0.18-0.19 yuan, and No. 92 gasoline in many places in China may return to the "7 yuan era". This means that the cost of fuel for car owners will decrease. Taking the fuel tank capacity of an ordinary private car with a capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling up a tank of fuel will cost at least 9 yuan less; In terms of diesel, a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 140 liters will save about 27.5 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel. (Yicai)

2. The Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission wrote: There is great potential for energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation and upgrading

Zhao Chenxin, a member of the Party Group and Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, wrote in the People's Daily that at present, the production capacity energy efficiency of more than 10% of China's steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemical, chemical, building materials and others is lower than the benchmark level, more than 60% of the stock of boilers, motors, transformers and other equipment energy efficiency is lower than the advanced level, more than 1/3 of the stock of buildings do not meet the standards of energy-saving buildings, and there is great potential for energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation and upgrading. It is necessary to organically combine the implementation of energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation in key areas with the expansion of effective investment, the renovation of old communities, large-scale equipment renewal and the trade-in of consumer goods, so as to give full play to the economic, social and ecological benefits of energy conservation and carbon reduction.

3. The National Development and Reform Commission's Price Cost and Certification Center will deploy and train the 2024 cost price survey of city gas industry

The Price Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and the China City Gas Association jointly held a price and cost exchange seminar and training activity for the city gas industry in Wuhu City, Anhui Province, focusing on the hot issues of cost and price in the city gas industry, and deploying and training the cost and price survey of the city gas industry in 2024. More than 200 representatives from local development and reform departments of 21 provinces (municipalities and districts) and enterprises in the national city gas industry attended the event. (National Development and Reform Commission Price, Cost and Certification Center)

4. Ministry of Commerce: Carry out a series of work to promote the high-quality development of the central region

At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council today (May 14), the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce said that in recent years, the Ministry of Commerce has carried out a series of work in supporting the rise of the central region, and the next step will be to actively support the six central provinces to accelerate the construction of open platforms such as the China-Africa Economic and Trade In-depth Cooperation Pilot Zone to promote high-quality development. Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations, said that in the next step, the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments and localities to actively support the six central provinces to vigorously consolidate the fundamentals of foreign investment and foreign trade, improve the domestic trade circulation system, accelerate the construction of open platforms such as the China-Africa Economic and Trade In-depth Cooperation Pilot Zone and the Pilot Free Trade Zone, supporting the central region to better serve and integrate into the new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development. (CCTV News)

5. China Mutual Finance Association: Promote the in-depth development of digitalization and intelligence of Internet finance

Recently, the Internet Finance Association of China held an exchange event for member executives of "New Trends in Digital Finance, New Future of Digitalizaiton and Intelligence Integration". Delegates and experts had in-depth exchanges on topics such as digital transformation and data governance, and innovative applications of digital intelligence integration, and discussed the implementation of large model technology in the financial industry, related computing power support, data compliance and other issues. In the next step, the association will focus on the main line of digital finance, continue to organize relevant activities based on the needs of industry development, promote in-depth exchanges and cooperation among member units, promote the in-depth development of digital and intelligent Internet finance, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial services. (Securities Times)

International News

1. It has been rising for more than a month! The futures price of the container transportation index (European line) may still have some upside trend?

The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) has continued to rise for more than 1 month, and it is expected that the tight supply and demand pattern of the European line container transportation will most likely continue until mid-June, and this week will focus on the opening price of the remaining shipping companies in early June, if the freight rate is further improved, the valuation of the 06 contract still has room to rise. Due to the circumvention of the Cape of Good Hope this year, the shipping schedule from Shanghai to the basic ports of Europe has generally increased by about 10 days, and the active regulation of the shipping company may lead to earlier traditional peak season of shipping this year compared with previous years. In the context of maintaining the detour in the third quarter, traders can pay attention to the upside of the 08 contract. In the case that the fundamental situation has not changed, the short-term rise of the European line contract is strong, but due to the large volatility of the futures price trend, the difficulty of trading has increased recently, and traders are advised to remain cautious and pay attention to the rhythm of operation and risk control. (Hengtai Futures)

2. 1/4 of the imports came from Russia, and Biden signed a ban on Russian uranium

U. S. President Joe Biden on Monday signed a bill banning the import of enriched uranium from Russia. Biden's signature also frees up about $2.7 billion in spending previously approved by Congress to increase domestic uranium supplies for U.S. nuclear power plants. The use of this money is subject to federal restrictions on Russian uranium imports. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Russia is the largest source of uranium fuel for the United States, and about a quarter of the uranium used in U.S. reactors comes from Russia. Russia makes a profit of about $1 billion a year from the sale of these supplies. Jonathan Hinze, President of nuclear fuel market research firm UxC, said cutting off this supply could increase uranium prices by 20%. However, the bill allows the Department of Energy to allow the import of enriched uranium from Russia until 2028 if no alternative source is found or if it is determined that the import is in the national interest.

3. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 96.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.5%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until August is 74.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 24.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.8%.

4. As the demand for AI energy surges, new regulations on the U.S. power grid will boost power  

US regulators have finalized regulations aimed at accelerating the construction of the grid of the future, approving the largest reform in at least 10 years to enable the energy transition, meet soaring demand, and provide protection against extreme weather. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) will require grid planners to conduct a 20-year assessment and approve regulations to allow high-voltage power lines to be laid in national corridors established by the U.S. Energy Department. They also set guidelines for allocating billions of dollars in grid maintenance costs. And, for the first time, developers will be required to engage with tribal and environmental justice groups early in the development process.

5. Agency: The employment situation in the UK weakened in April, but wage pressure remained high

Financial website Forexlive commented on UK employment data: The UK unemployment rate rose slightly in April, in line with expectations, and employment rate fell again in March. Despite the sharp revision of the March data, the change in employment remained in negative range in April. Overall, the data may suggest that the employment situation is softer, but wage pressures are continuing to remain elevated for now and are not helping much for the BoE. After the release of the data, the pound was not much fluctuated. It is important to note that when it comes to the above-mentioned labor market data, the INE still needs to address its reliability issues.

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