November 13th Macroeconomic Index: China's Commodity Index Reaches Highest Point Since August 2020, Global Crude Oil Demand Forecast Revised Upward

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: China's commodity index in September was 103.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month

2. The Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the extension of the investigation of trade barriers in Taiwan on trade restrictive measures against the mainland

3. China Futures Association: the trading volume of the national futures market in September increased by 28.05% year-on-year

4. Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Action Plan for the High-quality Development of Computing Power Infrastructure

International News

1. ECB President Christine Lagarde: The IMF has lowered its forecast for global economic growth excluding the United States

2. OPEC: Global crude oil demand is expected to reach 109 million b/d in 2027

3. Iraq adjusts the price of crude oil sold to different regions

4. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that Saudi’s crude oil production would remain at 9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024

Domestic News

1. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: China's commodity index in September was 103.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing(CFLP) released the China Commodity Index for September today (9th). The index has risen month-on-month for two consecutive months, indicating that the characteristics of the current domestic commodity market are further manifested. China's commodity index was 103.6% in September, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The index rose continuously, reaching its highest point since August 2020.

2. The Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement on the extension of the investigation of trade barriers in Taiwan on trade restrictive measures against the mainland

The Ministry of Commerce announced that in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and the Rules for the Investigation of Foreign Trade Barriers of the Ministry of Commerce, on April 12, 2023, the Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 11 of 2023, deciding to conduct an trade barriers investigation on trade restrictions measures against the mainland in Taiwan. In view of the complexity of this case, in accordance with Article 32 of the Rules for the Investigation of Foreign Trade Barriers, the Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the investigation period of this case by 3 months, that is, the deadline for investigation in this case is January 12, 2024.

3. China Futures Association: the trading volume of the national futures market in September increased by 28.05% year-on-year

According to the latest statistics of the China Futures Association, the trading volume of the national futures trading market in September was 746.559907 million lots, with a turnover of 51.482555 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.05% and 19.13% year-on-year respectively, and a decrease of 21.32% and 15.14% respectively. From January to September, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 6.468549304 trillion lots, with a cumulative turnover of 4.25290579 million yuan, an increase of 30.49% and 6.13% respectively year-on-year.

4. Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Action Plan for the High-quality Development of Computing Power Infrastructure

According to News from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the plan proposes that by 2025, in terms of computing power, the scale of computing power will exceed 300 EFLOPS, and the proportion of intelligent computing power will reach 35%, and the computing power of the east and west will develop in a balanced and coordinated manner. In terms of carrying capacity, the theoretical delay of the direct network transmission among the clusters of national hub node data centers is basically not higher than 1.5 times, the coverage rate of optical transport network (OTN) in key application sites reaches 80%, and the use of innovative technologies such as IPv6 and SRv6 fully supported by the backbone network and metropolitan area network accounts for 40%.

International News

1. ECB President Christine Lagarde: The IMF has lowered its forecast for global economic growth excluding the United States

Lagarde said in an interview with the media that the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast excluding the United States. The IMF is scheduled to release its latest world economic outlook on Tuesday. In July, the IMF raised its growth forecasts for the global economy and most major economies this year. The IMF will hold its annual meetings in Marrakech this week.

2. OPEC: Global crude oil demand is expected to reach 109 million b/d in 2027

OPEC World Oil Outlook Report: It is expected that global crude oil demand will reach 109 million barrels per day in 2027, higher than the estimated 106.9 million barrels per day in 2022; The total investment required for the oil industry by 2045 is set at $14 trillion, higher than the estimated $12.1 trillion in 2022; Upgrade the outlook to the mid-term outlook for 2028 and the long-term global oil demand outlook for 2023-2045.

3. Iraq adjusts the price of crude oil sold to different regions

The Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization(SOMO) stated that Iraq has set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Asia in November to be 2.1 US dollars per barrel higher than the average price in Dubai, Oman. Set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to Europe at a discount of $1.15 per barrel compared to Brent crude oil. Set the price of Basra medium crude oil sold to North and South America at a discount of 0.25 US dollars per barrel compared to Argus sour crude oil.

4. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that Saudi’s crude oil production would remain at 9 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024

Goldman Sachs: The Israeli attack is unlikely to have any significant impact on the near-term oil supply-demand balance and near-term oil inventories, continuing to forecast Brent crude prices to reach $100/b by June 2024. Development at the end of this week have reduced the likelihood of an early lifting of Saudi Arabia's production cuts, which are expected to remain at 9 million b/d at the first quarter of 2024 and then grow at a rate of 250,000 b/d per quarter for the rest of 2024. For every 100,000 b/d reduction in Iran's 2024 production compared to its benchmark production, the price of Brent crude oil will mechanically rise by about $1/b by the end of 2024.

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