November 13th Macroeconomic Index: China's Domestic Tourism Revenue Surges During Holidays, US Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Expectations

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Domestic News

1. In 2023, there was 826 million domestic tourism trips during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and domestic tourism revenue were 753.43 billion yuan

2. China Economic Daily: There is no downgrade in automobile consumption

3. The cultural and tourism industry accelerated its recovery during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and consumption momentum continued to be released

4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to August, China's electronic information manufacturing industry production continued to recover

International News

1. US Non-farm Employment Report for September

2. Report: the German government expects the economy to contract by 0.4 percent this year

3. The Russian government stated it lifted the ban on pipeline diesel exports

4. The WTO lowered its forecast for global commodity trade growth in 2023, saying that growth was generally weak

Domestic News

1. In 2023, there was 826 million domestic tourism trips during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and domestic tourism revenue were 753.43 billion yuan

In the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2023, the culture and tourism industry recovered strongly, and the national holiday market will be stable and orderly. According to the forecast of the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, 826 million domestic tourists traveled during the 8-day long Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% on a comparable basis, and an increase of 4.1% on a comparable basis compared with 2019; Achieved a domestic tourism revenue of 753.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.5% based on comparable standards, and a growth of 1.5% based on comparable standards compared to 2019.

2. China Economic Daily: There is no downgrade in automobile consumption

The China Economic Daily reported that measuring whether car consumption is upgraded or downgraded depends not only on changes in prices, but also on changes in consumer attitudes and structure. With the acceleration of electrification and intelligent transformation, people's recognition and acceptance of new energy vehicles are increasing. The significant increase in the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles today reflects an upgrading of consumption concepts and structures. Overall, the automotive market has not experienced a so-called consumption downgrade in recent years, but has been in a state of upgrading. Due to the improvement of material living standards and changes in consumer attitudes, categories and segmented fields are also constantly upgrading. Therefore, there is no talk of a downgrade in car consumption.

3. The cultural and tourism industry accelerated its recovery during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and consumption momentum continued to be released

The data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism predicts that the tourism popularity during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday reached a record high, and domestic tourism trips are expected to reach 896 million, a year-on-year increase of 86%, and domestic tourism revenue will reach 782.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138%. The hot consumption of cultural tourism during the holiday reflects the vigorous vitality and huge potential of the consumer market, highlighting the strong domestic demand driving force of China's economy.

4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to August, China's electronic information manufacturing industry production continued to recover

According to the news of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to August, China's electronic information manufacturing industry production continued to recover, the decline in exports continued to narrow, the recovery of benefits accelerated, and investment tended to stabilize. From January to August, the added value of electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 0.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over January to July; the growth rate was 3 and 0.9 percentage points lower than that of industrial and high-tech manufacturing in the same period. In August, the added value of electronic information manufacturing above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

International News

1. US Non-farm Employment Report for September

The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, which is the largest increase this year, and much higher than the expectation of 170,000, the previous number was revised from 187,000 to 227,000; the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.8% in September, higher than the expected rate of 3.7%, consistent with the previous rate; Average hourly wages in the United States rose 4.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in September. The data shows that the momentum in the US labor market is unabated, strengthening the case for the Fed to raise interest rates again. The dynamism of the employment market suggests that enterprises remain confident in their sales prospects. Despite the slowdown in hiring since last year, labor market resilience remains a key source of strength for household spending and the broad economy. For the Fed, however, a strong labor market could keep inflation under upward pressure. Data released by the U.S. government, along with other data such as the recent rise in job openings, could prompt the Fed officials to lean toward raising rates again before the end of the year.

2. Report: the German government expects the economy to contract by 0.4 percent this year

According to sources, the German government predicts that the economy will contract by 0.4% this year in its autumn forecast draft, grow by 1.3% next year, and grow by 1.5% in 2025. The government predicted that the economic growth rate in 2023 would be 0.4% in April .

3. The Russian government stated that it lifted the ban on pipeline diesel exports

The press office of the Russian government stated on Telegram that Russia lifted the ban on the export of pipeline diesel. Companies must supply no less than 50% of their diesel to the local market. The Russian government raised its downstream spending from October, and Russia imposed a prohibited fuel tax on gray market exporters.

4. The WTO lowered its forecast for global commodity trade growth in 2023, saying that growth was generally weak

The World Trade Organization (WTO) believes that the growth rate of global commodity trade this year will be less than half of what was predicted six months ago. On October 5th, the World Trade Organization stated in a report that it is expected that the volume of commodity trade in 2023 will increase by 0.8% year-on-year, lower than the 1.7% increase predicted in April, which would be much lower than the annual growth rate 2.6% since the global financial crisis. Trade seems to be slowing down comprehensively, involving a large number of countries and various commodities, especially manufactured goods of certain categories such as steel, office and telecommunications equipment, textiles and clothing... Inflation, high interest rates, the appreciation of the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions are all contributing to the situation.

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