November 13th Macroeconomic Index: China's First-Tier City Housing Prices Flat Month-on-Month, GDP Growth Expected to Rebound

Daily Macro Economy News

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: In September, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities were flat month-on-month and the increased year-on-year

2. The 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation High-level Forum on Connectivity was held in Beijing

3. The Department of Environmental Resources of the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed the competent departments of energy conservation in four provinces (cities) of Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong and Chongqing

4. Economists predict that China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rebound to more than 5% year-on-year

International News

1. International oil transportation and dry bulk freight prices are strengthening The industry continues to be optimistic about the recent market

2. Fed's Beige Book: Prices continue to heat up moderately

3. The UN Security Council has not adopted a draft resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue

4. The yield on the US 10-year treasury bond rose to 4.889%, the highest since 2007

Domestic News

1. National Bureau of Statistics: In September, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities were flat month-on-month and the increased year-on-year

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from a month-on-month perspective, in September, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities turned flat from 0.2% in the previous month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Sales prices of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities rose for the first time after falling for four consecutive months, with an increase of 0.2%, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, Guangzhou falling 0.7% month-on-month, and Shenzhen flat month-on-month.

2. The 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation High-level Forum on Connectivity was held in Beijing

On the afternoon of October 18, the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation High-level Forum on Connectivity was held in Beijing. The participants stated the positive and important role played by the Belt and Road Initiative in strengthening global connectivity, and looked forward to deepening mutually beneficial cooperation and achieving common development. The theme of this high-level forum is "Deepening Connectivity and Building an Open World Economy" and is hosted by the National Development and Reform Commission. About 500 representatives of all fields from the countries jointly building the "Belt and Road" and relevant international organizations attended the forum.

3. The Department of Environmental Resources of the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed the competent departments of energy conservation in four provinces (cities) of Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong and Chongqing

A few days ago, the Department of Environmental Resources of the National Development and Reform Commission talked to responsible people of the energy conservation authorities of Zhejiang Province, Anhui Province, Guangdong Province and Chongqing Municipality on the lagging progress in reducing energy consumption intensity in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The interview emphasized that the competent departments of energy conservation in relevant regions should pay great attention to it, pay close attention to the target tasks of reducing energy consumption in the 14th Five-Year Plan, strengthen progress management on an annual and quarterly basis, and comprehensively explore energy consumption, input and output, and cost-effectiveness by prefecture, industry, and enterprise. It is necessary to strictly implement energy conservation inspection, do a good job in the access gate of new projects, and resolutely prohibited the blind launch of industries and companies which were high pollution, high energy consumption and low level. It is necessary to carry out in-depth diagnosis of energy efficiency, strengthen energy-saving technology and financial support, and enlarge the transformation intensity of energy-saving of the existing projects. It is necessary to further strengthen the consumption of renewable energy, improve the level of refined management of energy conservation, strengthen the guarantee of energy use for high-quality development, and resolutely put an end to the "one-size-fits-all" restriction of enterprise electricity consumption in the name of energy conservation and carbon peak and carbon neutrality.

4. Economists predict that China's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will rebound to more than 5% year-on-year

Experts said that in the fourth quarter, a series of policies to stabilize economy were introduced in the early stage, and that will continue to be effective, and targeted reserve policies are expected to be introduced in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, which will further strengthen the endogenous growth momentum of the economy and promote economic growth in a sustained, steady and rapid manner. Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research Department of JLL Greater China, expects that some policies that aim to promote steady growth and some counter-cyclical measures will continue to increase to improve quality and efficiency and implement details. Main economic indicators will continue to improve in October, and the GDP in the fourth quarter and the year-on-year growth rate for the whole year will reach a suitable level of more than 5% and 5% respectively.

International News

1. International oil transportation and dry bulk freight prices are strengthening The industry continues to be optimistic about the recent market

On October 17, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures the freight rates of iron ore, grain, coal and other commodities, rose 4.36% from the previous day to 2,058 points, a new high for the year. At the same time, the international oil transportation market is also quite prosperous. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) reported 1244 points, which has maintained its rise for five consecutive days. Regarding this wave of market, shipping companies, commodities and shipping researchers believe that it is driven by the rise in risk aversion caused by seasonal demand and geopolitical conflicts, and continue to be optimistic about the market in the near future.

2. Fed's Beige Book: Prices continue to heat up moderately

Fed's Beige Book: Economic activity in most regions has not changed since September. The short-term outlook for the U.S. economy has been described as stable growth or slightly weak. The tightness of the employment market continues to ease. Prices continue to rise modestly. Consumer spending is mixed, especially among general retailers and car dealers, due to price differentials and offer differentials of product. Travel activity continued to improve, but some regions’ report pointed out that a slight slowdown in consumer travel, with few talking about the recovery of business travel. The banking sector reported a modest decline in loan demand. Consumer credit quality is generally described as stable or healthy. Default rates remain historically low, but slightly increased. Real estate conditions have barely changed and the stock of homes for sale remains on the low side. Manufacturing activity was mixed, with several districts citing improved manufacturing prospects. As far as the upcoming (Thanksgiving + Christmas) holiday sales season is concerned, many companies have mixed expectations for sales.

3. The UN Security Council has not adopted a draft resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue

On October 18, the United Nations Security Council voted on another draft resolution on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, with 12 countries voting in favor, the United States voting against and the other two abstaining. Since the United States was a permanent member of the Security Council, the resolution could not be adopted. The voting that day was on the draft resolution submitted by Brazil. The resolution condemned the Hamas attacks and urged all parties to abide by international law, to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, to provide civilians with basic services including electricity, water, fuel, food and medical supplies, to implement orders calling for the evacuation of residents from the northern Gaza Strip and to guarantee humanitarian assistance.

4. The yield on the US 10-year treasury bond rose to 4.889%, the highest since 2007

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose as much as 5.5 basis points to 4.889%, the highest level since July 2007 and surpassing the previous year's high of 4.885% hit on Oct. 6. Recent U.S. economic data showing that the economy remains resilient and has put selling pressure on the bond market.

Domestic Macro Economy Index