November 19th Macroeconomic Index:【Domestic and foreign financial developments: Economic growth is expected to improve, and policies and markets are working together】

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Prie Trend & Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. Industry participants: The central bank will take the opportunity to cut the reserve requirement ratio from November to December, which may, to a certain extent, alleviate the pressure on the bank's capital from the issuance of refinancing special bonds

2. A new round of implicit debt swaps has been launched in many places, and the total amount of bonds issued has reached 224.4 billion yuan

3. Economic growth is expected to rebound significantly in the fourth quarter

4. CNOOC Bozhong 19-2 oilfield was fully put into operation

5. The Ministry of Finance decided to carry out the market-making support operation of treasury bonds

 International News

1. Institutions: The global storage market exceeded $120 billion in the first three quarters of 2024

2. Goldman Sachs said "to buy gold", Central bank demand and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut are expected to help gold prices stand above $3,000 next year

3. Has the US allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to attack targets in depth in Russia? The President of Ukraine responded

4. Sources: Trump's team wants to relax U.S. regulations on self-driving cars

5. Five countries, including the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden, oppose the EU's 2025 budget

Domestic News

1. Industry participants: The central bank will take the opportunity to cut the reserve requirement ratio from November to December, which may, to a certain extent, alleviate the pressure on the bank's capital from the issuance of refinancing special bonds

According to Jiemian News, with the successive issuance of these refinancing special bonds, the market has begun to pay attention to whether it will have a supply shock on the bond market. According to statistics, a total of 192.6 billion yuan of bonds were issued this week (November 18-22), of which the issuance in the last two days was larger, but it has not yet reached the level of large-scale volume. Analysts note that the real supply pressure is likely to be concentrated in late November and early December. The central bank has announced that it will cut the RRR in November and December to deal with possible capital tightness. This measure is expected to alleviate the pressure on banks' funds from the issuance of special refinancing bonds to a certain extent.

2. A new round of implicit debt swaps has been launched in many places, and the total amount of bonds issued has reached 224.4 billion yuan

Since the Ministry of Finance announced the "10 trillion+" bond plan on November 8, many governments are accelerating the launch of a new round of issuance plans for existing implicit debt replacement bonds. According to data from China Bond Information Network, as of November 18, five provinces and cities, namely Henan Province, Guizhou Province, Jiangsu Province, Dalian City and Qingdao City, have disclosed their plans to issue special refinancing special bonds, with a total amount of 224.4 billion yuan.

3. Economic growth is expected to rebound significantly in the fourth quarter

According to the research report, the economic data covering both ends of production and demand in October have warmed up significantly, with a weighted average growth rate of 5.9% on the production side and a weighted average growth rate of 5.0% on the demand side, and the effect of policy efforts has been further revealed, if the growth rate of the both ends of production and demand in November and December continues to be close to the level of that in October, the real GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2024 is expected to achieve the target of 5%. Recently, important events such as the U.S. presidential election and the convening of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China have landed, but the window period for the introduction of incremental policies has not yet ended. Broad fiscal spending in the fourth quarter will usher in a peak period under the demand for the progress of supplementary spending, which is expected to drive the economic data from November to December to continue to be better, and the certainty of economic recovery in the fourth quarter is strong.

4. CNOOC Bozhong 19-2 oilfield was fully put into operation

It was learned from CNOOC Tianjin Branch that the central platform of the Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield Development Project, a large oilfield with a production capacity of one million tons in the central part of the Bohai Sea, was recently put into operation, marking the full operation of the Bozhong 19-2 oilfield. Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield is a large-scale oilfield with complete and high-quality oil and gas discovered on top of the Bozhong 19-6 buried hill oil and gas reservoir. According to the relevant person in charge of CNOOC Tianjin Branch, it is expected that by the end of this year, the Bozhong 19-2 oilfield will contribute more than 120,000 tons of crude oil production and more than 7.5 million cubic meters of natural gas production.

5. The Ministry of Finance decided to carry out the market-making support operation of treasury bonds

In order to support the market-making of treasury bonds, improve the liquidity of the secondary market of treasury bonds, and improve the yield curve of treasury bonds that reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market, the Ministry of Finance has decided to carry out market-making support operations for treasury bonds. Operation direction: on sale. Types of operating bonds: 710 million yuan of book-entry interest-bearing (16-period) treasury bonds in 2024 and 400 million yuan of book-entry interest-bearing (19-period) treasury bonds in 2024.

International News

1. Institutions: The global storage market exceeded $120 billion in the first three quarters of 2024

According to CFM flash memory market data, the global NANDFlash market size increased by 5.7% quarter-on-quarter to $19.021 billion in the third quarter of 2024, and the DRAM market size increased by 10.4% quarter-on-quarter to $25.85 billion. The global storage market size increased by 8.3% quarter-on-quarter to US$44.871 billion in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2024, the global storage market reached $120.225 billion, a year-on-year increase of 96.8%.

2. Goldman Sachs said "to buy gold", Central bank demand and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut are expected to help gold prices stand above $3,000 next year

Goldman Sachs said gold is expected to rise to record highs given central bank buying and the prospect of U.S. interest rate cuts next year, adding that gold is among its preferred commodities trading in 2025 and said gold prices could rise further during Trump's presidency. "buy gold," analysts such as Daan Struyven said in a note, reiterating the target of $3,000 an ounce by December 2025. They said the structural driver of this expectation is increased central bank demand, while the cyclical boost will come from flows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the Fed cuts interest rates.

3. Has the US allowed Ukraine to use US weapons to attack targets in depth in Russia? The President of Ukraine responded

In response to media reports that Ukraine has been allowed to use long-range weapons to strike at Russia's depth, the Ukrainian president responded in a routine video speech on the 17th, "Today, there are many reports in the media about us obtaining permission to operate. However, the blow is not achieved by words. Such a thing will not be announced in advance. The missile will make a statement in its own way. ”

4. Sources: Trump's team wants to relax U.S. regulations on self-driving cars

Members of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's transition team told advisers they plan to make a federal framework for fully autonomous vehicles one of the Department of Transportation's priorities, according to people familiar with the matter. If the new rules make driverless cars possible, Tesla's CEO Elon Musk will benefit directly. Tesla is one of the major obstacles posed by current federal regulations for businesses looking to deploy cars without steering wheels or footpegs on a large scale. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump's team is looking for policy leaders for the department to develop a framework for regulating self-driving cars. Congress is also discussing a bipartisan measure that would create federal regulations on self-driving cars, two people familiar with the matter said.

5. Five countries, including the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden, oppose the EU 2025 budget

The reporter learned on the 17th local time that the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland and Denmark were dissatisfied with the previous EU 2025 budget agreement. According to the procedure, the budget should be approved by the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament within 14 days of reaching an agreement. It is known that in the upcoming vote, the above-mentioned countries will abstain.

Domestic Macro Economy Index