November 26th Macroeconomic Index:[Economic and Policy Trends] China's logistics is growing steadily, the European automobile industry is experiencing layoffs, and Kazakhstan is cutting oil production.

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Domestic News

1. Ministry of Transport: Last week, the national railway transported a total of 81.92 million tons of goods, an increase of 0.11% month-on-month.

2. CNCA issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality Management System Certification of Small and Micro Enterprises".

3. China Overseas Land & Investment: 3 billion yuan of corporate bonds will be issued

4. The Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department and Sinopec signed a MOU to promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry

5. Liuzhou, Guangxi: The down payment ratio of provident fund loans is planned to be unified to not less than 20%

 International News

1. Layoffs in the European auto industry: 50,000 employees are facing unemployment and car companies are losing their profits rapidly.

2. Kazakhstan's Energy Minister: oil production will be cut to 88.4 million tons this year

3. Affected by the risk of U.S. tariffs, it is expected that the pace of interest rate cuts in Asian countries will slow down

4. The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, after a postponement of more than 30 hours

5. Japan's Shigeru Ishiba cabinet approved an economic stimulus package worth 21.9 trillion yen to address a range of challenges from inflation to wage growth

Domestic News

1. Ministry of Transport: Last week, the national railway transported a total of 81.92 million tons of goods, an increase of 0.11% month-on-month.

According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the Leading Group for Logistics Guarantee and Smooth Work of the State Council, from November 18th to November 24th, the national freight logistics operated in an orderly manner, including: the national railway transported a total of 81.92 million tons of goods, an increase of 0.11% month-on-month; The total number of trucks on highways nationwide was 55.297 million, an increase of 0.68% month-on-month; The cumulative cargo throughput of the monitored ports was 262.144 million tons, down 0.95% month-on-month, and the container throughput was 6.017 million TEUs, down 3.65% month-on-month; Civil aviation has guaranteed a total of 116,000 flights (including 5,268 cargo flights, including 3,485 international cargo flights and 1,783 domestic cargo flights), an increase of 0.77% month-on-month; The cumulative volume of postal express delivery was about 3.815 billion pieces, a decrease of 6.01% month-on-month; The cumulative delivery volume was about 3.824 billion pieces, a decrease of 8.89% month-on-month.

2. CNCA issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality Management System Certification of Small and Micro Enterprises".

Recently, the CNCA issued the "Action Plan for Improving the Quality Management System Certification of Small and Micro Enterprises". In recent years, the "Small and Micro Enterprise Quality Management System Certification Improvement Action" has achieved remarkable results. According to incomplete statistics, since 2024, a total of 1,636 incentive policies have been introduced across the country, providing 60.85 billion yuan of financial credit support such as "certification loans" for small and micro enterprises, and implementing financial subsidies of 650 million yuan, and 468 certification bodies have implemented targeted assistance for more than 54,000 small and micro enterprises, reducing certification fees by 38.76 million yuan, and providing free training for about 649,000 enterprises for 1.925 million person-times. In 2024, the annual revenue of small and micro enterprises participating in the promotion action will increase by 9.7% on average, the annual product sales will increase by 14.2%, the annual profit margin will increase by 8%, and the quality cost control rate will decrease by 5.8%.

3. China Overseas Land & Investment: 3 billion yuan of corporate bonds will be issued

China Overseas Land & Investment (00688.HK) announced that China Overseas Enterprise Development Group Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, will issue corporate bonds (Phase II) to professional investors in 2024 and be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a total issuance size of no more than 3 billion yuan. There are two types of bonds, the first product is issued with a tenor of 5 years, and the second product is issued with a tenor of 10 years, both of which are accompanied by an inter-product clawback option.

4. The Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department and Sinopec signed a MOU to promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry

On November 25, the Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (EPD) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Development and Application of Hydrogen Energy in Hong Kong to strengthen cooperation in promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry, application demonstration and capacity building. The MOU includes technical exchanges and experience sharing in the hydrogen energy industry; Sinopec has built a demonstration system for the production of green hydrogen at the EPD's remediated landfill site to produce green hydrogen for local use, with a view to promoting the development of hydrogen energy in Hong Kong and promoting the popularization of hydrogen energy application. Sinopec will also assist the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) in strengthening publicity and education on hydrogen energy, so that the public can understand the global development trend of safe use of hydrogen energy.

5. Liuzhou, Guangxi: The down payment ratio of provident fund loans is planned to be unified to not less than 20%

On November 25, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Liuzhou City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, solicited opinions from the public on the "Notice on Adjusting the Down Payment Ratio of Personal Housing Loans of the Housing Provident Fund, the Upper Limit of the Loan Amount for Multi-child Families and the Conditions for Handling the Mortgage Business of Business to Public Transfer (Draft for Comments)". The draft proposes to reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund loans. If the borrower's family applies for a provident fund loan, the down payment ratio of the loan is not less than 20%. Increase the maximum amount of CPF loans for multi-child families. Families of borrowers who have two or more children in line with the national fertility policy will increase the upper limit of the loan amount by 200,000 yuan when applying for the first set of provident fund loans. Eligible borrower families can only enjoy the policy of increasing the upper limit of the housing provident fund loan amount once. At the same time, Liuzhou City will also relax the conditions for handling the mortgage business of business to business. If the borrower's family meets the requirements for applying for a provident fund loan, it can apply for the subordinate mortgage business of converting a commercial housing mortgage loan into a housing provident fund loan.

International News

1. Layoffs in the European auto industry: 50,000 employees are facing unemployment and car companies are losing their profits rapidly.

The European automotive industry is facing an unprecedented crisis. Volkswagen said it would close at least three factories in Germany and lay off tens of thousands of employees to cope with declining profits. In early November, Audi announced plans to reduce its workforce by cutting around 15 percent of non-production jobs, which will affect 4,500 jobs in Germany. Ford will lay off 4,000 jobs in Europe and the UK by the end of 2027, with the majority of those layoffs in Germany. The Bosch Group has decided to lay off more than 7,000 employees in Germany and up to 3,200 in the automotive supply division. ZF previously announced that it expects to cut 11,000~14,000 by the end of 2028. According to incomplete statistics, 8 companies, including Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, Stellantis, 4 car companies and 4 parts giants, will lay off about 50,000 employees in Europe.

2. Kazakhstan's Energy Minister: oil production will be cut to 88.4 million tons this year

Kazakhstan's Energy Minister, Almasadam Satkaliyev, said on Monday that Kazakhstan is considering transporting most of its oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline in the medium term. The move will allow Kazakhstan to reduce its dependence on Russia, which currently transships most of Kazakhstan's exports. Satkaliyev said that the country could increase the annual transportation volume of the BTC pipeline from the current 1.5 million tons to 20 million tons as crude oil production increases, but he did not provide an exact time frame. "Both we and our Azerbaijani partners are interested in developing and gradually increasing the volume of oil shipments from Kazakhstan in this direction," he told the parliament. Satkaliyev said Kazakhstan will produce 88.4 million tonnes of oil this year, down from the original plan of more than 90 million tonnes, reflecting maintenance disruptions in large oil fields and Kazakhstan's commitment to OPEC+. Kazakhstan will export 68.8 million tonnes of oil this year. Starting in 2026, Kazakhstan is expected to produce more than 100 million tons of oil per year.

3. Affected by the risk of U.S. tariffs, it is expected that the pace of interest rate cuts in Asian countries will slow down

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Asian central banks would cautiously push ahead with further easing given the strength of the dollar and the risk of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates further this week, according to Andrew Tilton, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs. Last week, Indonesian officials warned that the scope to reduce borrowing costs had shrunk due to political developments in the United States. "With tariffs likely to come and the dollar near multi-decade highs, we think the pace of rate cuts will be quite slow," Tilton said. I think the US dollar is also one of the important influencing factors, because exchange rates and exchange rate stability are very important for Asian central banks. ”

4. The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, after a postponement of more than 30 hours

The twenty-ninth session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, after a postponement of more than 30 hours. The conference adopted 20 decisions and reached a balanced package, setting a target of at least US$300 billion per year for developed countries and at least US$1.3 trillion per year for climate finance by 2035 to support climate action in developing countries.

5. Japan's Shigeru Ishiba cabinet approved an economic stimulus package worth 21.9 trillion yen to address a range of challenges from inflation to wage growth

Japan's Shigeru Ishiba cabinet has approved an economic stimulus package worth 21.9 trillion yen to tackle a range of challenges, from inflation to wage growth. While the scale of the stimulus package rolled out by Shigeru Ishiba's government is comparable to last year's, it has raised questions about whether Japan needs such large-scale government support when economic growth is relatively stable. Some interviewed experts believe that Japan's fiscal and monetary policies are currently facing a dilemma.

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