PET: The Market is Off to a Good Start and Waiting for Demand to Return
During the Spring Festival holiday, the international crude oil market continued to rise. Tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border are rising, reigniting fears that the war in Gaza could spread to other parts of the Middle East. WTI crude oil futures rose to their highest level since Nov. 6 last year as rising tensions in the Middle East overshadowed the impact of U.S. inflation and expectations of slower demand growth this year. Geopolitical risks are the main factor supporting oil prices, but the delay in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations has led to a series of upward gains in the dollar index, coupled with a poor market demand outlook, which has limited the rise in oil prices.
The rise of international crude oil, boost the overall commodity market atmosphere, at the first working day after the holiday, the PET industry market has risen, after the opening of futures, polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol main futures market opened sharply, the cost side of the rise boosted, PET and polyester market rose. As of the 19th, the PTA East China spot market rose to 6,000 yuan/ton, up 1.44% from before the holiday, and the ethylene glycol at the East China market rose to 4,710 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from before the holiday. Although the polyester market actively follows the rise of raw materials, its overall increase is limited, so the profits of polyester companies are still in a state of loss. Up to now, the profit of slice products is -33 yuan/ton, the profit of bottle flake products is -263 yuan/ton, the profit of polyester filament products is -23 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber products is -190 yuan/ton.
Although the polyester market is actively rising, but the terminal textile demand has not recovered, most of the downstream is still in a state of holiday, the production situation of weaving enterprises during the Spring Festival to start to the freezing point, of which the weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell to a low level of around 5 percent. Most enterprises are expected to resume work around the fifteenth day of the first month, so the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is low, the production and sales of polyester enterprises after the holiday are still weak, and the production and sales of most polyester enterprises remain around 10%-30%, and the lower demand also weakens the rising momentum of the polyester market.
After the holiday, some domestic polyester maintenance enterprises resume work, the polyester industry started to gradually increase, so far the polyester industry has risen to around 80%, coupled with the steady increase in polyester load, but it also makes the market to the future market demand recovery expectations to form a certain confidence. In addition, there are still many new polyester units on the market, and the supply of polyester market remains relatively high.
The prospect of sluggish demand prospects and long-term high U.S. interest rates continues to weigh on market sentiment, the international crude oil market fluctuates at a high level, and the market promotion has weakened, polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol market are driven by their own supply and demand side, and the short-term market is expected to be adjusted in a narrow range. Polyester raw materials are supported, and the polyester market offer will be slightly adjusted with the cost. It is expected that the price of polyester in the short term will fluctuate in a narrow range. In the later stage, pay close attention to the changes in the raw material market and the supply and demand side of polyester itself.
