August 18 Qingdao Rubber Price Drop

Index

On August 18, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,805/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply:

Overseas: Increased rainfall in some producing areas of Thailand has led major manufacturers to increase prices to secure raw materials, driving up raw material purchase prices. Weather conditions in Vietnam's producing areas have been normal, and the average daily supply of rubber has steadily increased. To ensure delivery of early orders, processing plants have continued their rush to harvest and maintained high purchasing activity, supporting overall firm raw material prices.

Domestic: Continued rainfall in the Yunnan and Hainan producing areas has limited raw material availability, pushing up raw material prices.

Demand: It is understood that semi-steel tire manufacturers undergoing maintenance are gradually resuming operations. Currently, overall shipments are average, new orders are insufficient, and production pressure persists. Some manufacturers are also flexibly controlling production, limiting the potential for a recovery in overall operating rates.

Futures and Spot Price List

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw wide fluctuations, with spot prices following a narrow range. The market's center of gravity was unstable, and holders were cautious in their bids. In the short term, heavy rain in producing areas continued to impact the release of new rubber, while raw material prices remained firm, with strong cost support. The amount of stockpiles released fell short of market expectations, and bullish market sentiment persisted.

However, downstream companies are curbing production in late August, and the pace of spot inventory reduction is expected to slow, potentially suppressing any price rebound. Amidst the supply-demand dynamics, natural rubber prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term.

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