August 22nd: Qingdao NR Price & Outlook
Index
On August 22, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber market in Qingdao was $1,805/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply:
Foreign: Continued rainy weather disrupted production areas in Thailand. While supply release showed signs of improvement month-over-month, the increase was less than expected, leading to high raw material purchase prices. Increased rainfall in Vietnam led to a slight month-over-month contraction in overall rubber supply. To ensure order fulfillment, local rubber processing plants maintained high purchasing activity, supporting an increase in raw material prices.
Domestic: Continued rainfall in Yunnan production areas maintained a tight raw material supply, driving raw material purchase prices higher. Improved weather conditions in Hainan production areas, however, limited raw material supply increases. Some processing plants increased their prices to rush to purchase raw materials, driving up raw material prices.
On the demand side: It is understood that full-steel tire manufacturers are maintaining production schedules similar to the previous period, with some still implementing production control measures. Overall, shipments remain generally normal, with minimal inventory fluctuations and minor adjustments. Overall, production and sales are generally balanced. However, some semi-steel tire manufacturers are experiencing slow shipments, with inventories still experiencing a slight increase.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract saw a volatile decline, with spot prices following the market downward. The market's center of gravity was unstable, and holders were less enthusiastic about quoting. Rainfall in producing areas continues to impact supply, and raw material procurement prices remain high. However, the increase in Yunnan's alternative planting quotation is putting pressure on supply, somewhat curbing raw material price increases. Tire export data showed an unexpected increase, and companies are actively purchasing raw materials. Natural rubber prices remain strongly supported in the short term, and rubber prices are likely to remain relatively strong.
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