August 27th: Qingdao Rubber Price Drop

Index

On August 27, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,820/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market Supply:

Overseas: Continued rainy weather disrupted production areas in Thailand. While supply release showed signs of improvement month-over-month, the increase was less than expected, keeping raw material purchase prices high. Increased rainfall in Vietnam led to a slight month-over-month contraction in overall rubber supply. To ensure order fulfillment, local rubber processing plants maintained strong purchasing activity, supporting an increase in raw material prices.

Domestic: Continued rainfall in Yunnan production areas maintained a tight supply of raw materials, driving raw material purchase prices higher. Improved weather conditions in Hainan production areas, however, limited raw material supply increases. Some processing plants are increasing their willingness to purchase raw materials at a higher price, driving up raw material prices.

Demand: It is understood that companies are operating steadily, with relatively strong foreign trade shipments at the end of the month, providing some support for overall shipments. However, overall inventory reduction is slow, and some companies still have maintenance plans at the end of the month, indicating that companies are still in a phase of production control.

Futures and Spot Price List

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw volatile trading, with spot prices following suit and moving in a narrow range, with little overall movement. Typhoon-affected production areas have slowed supply release, and raw material prices remain high. However, trading activity in the spot market has cooled somewhat, with tire manufacturers becoming more cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials. Rising risk aversion may constrain rubber price appreciation to some extent. The natural rubber market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term.

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