Carbon Black Market Weekly-No. 20260122
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices generally showed a clear upward trend. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 6800 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6500 yuan/ton; Hebei 6900 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6850 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6900 yuan/ton. While new orders for carbon black increased this period, actual order prices saw limited increases.
New orders for raw material coal tar rose significantly, pushing up prices and increasing pressure on the carbon black market. Some large manufacturers suspended orders, awaiting further increases, leading to a stalemate in market negotiations. Downstream tire manufacturers continued to fulfill previously low-priced orders, resulting in substantial losses in the carbon black market. This created a strong upward pressure on prices, and the carbon black market still has some upward potential.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 6787 as of January 22nd, an increase of 367.75 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
This period saw mixed price movements for most products in the high-temperature coal tar industry chain. The high-temperature coal tar market maintained a strong upward trend throughout the week, with continued cost increases putting pressure on coal tar deep-processing enterprises' shipments. The main product, coal pitch, showed a clear upward trend, with new orders still under negotiation and no low prices available in the market.
The anthracene oil market saw a gradual release of upward pressure; after new orders in Shandong, offers from other regions were gradually released. The industrial naphthalene and wash oil markets were constrained by demand and experienced declines. Light oil saw a slight increase, and carbon black had significant room for further price increases.
However, in reality, new orders are currently only quoted prices and have not yet been finalized. In the short term, raw material prices for the coal tar deep-processing industry will continue to remain high. Most deep-processing enterprises are actively raising prices, while some products are declining due to demand pressure, leading to increasing production pressure in the coal tar deep-processing industry.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
This period saw a significant upward trend in the spot price of anthracene oil in Shandong. The raw material market, high-temperature coal tar, experienced a substantial price increase. This continuous rise in costs has put pressure on deep-processing enterprises. Currently, the overall operating rate of the deep-processing industry is at a high level, and raw material prices are likely to remain high in the short term. Downstream product sales pressure is gradually emerging.
With increased supply and cost pressures in the anthracene oil market, holders are actively pushing up their offers. Downstream demand for anthracene oil hydrogenation is essentially stagnant. In the carbon black industry, new orders have seen significant price increases, but most new orders have already been signed in advance.
The actual implementation of these new orders after the price increases is poor, putting significant pressure on accepting the sharply increased anthracene oil prices. Overall, currently only Shandong has seen some high-priced transactions in the anthracene oil market, while other regions are still observing and making offers. It is possible that once all anthracene oil supplies are released, the overall price increase may narrow.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, new orders for raw material coal tar are expected to rise significantly, with price differences narrowing across regions, resulting in substantial cost pressure. The carbon black market is anticipated to see new order quotations follow suit, but downstream buyers are cautious, leading to a stalemate in actual transaction negotiations. New orders have room to rise further due to cost pressures.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, after the significant increase in raw material coal tar prices, although carbon black prices have followed suit, high-level transactions are generally weak. Most transactions are focused on fulfilling previously placed low-priced orders, resulting in substantial actual losses in the carbon black market. Currently, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton from last week.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of sample carbon black enterprises declined slightly, while raw material prices rose sharply, increasing pressure on the carbon black market. Some enterprises reduced production lines and adjusted their production schedules, leading to a decline in the market operating rate. Moreover, the carbon black market faces significant upward pressure in the short term, and the operating rate may remain low in the future.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 74%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 63%.
Currently, tire manufacturers' overall shipments are below expectations, coupled with pre-holiday stockpiling, leading to a continued rise in industry inventory. Overall market shipments are weak. Semi-steel all-season tire sales are average, with some restocking by channels, possibly for the pre-holiday travel peak. Snow tire sales have increased slightly due to low temperatures in some areas, but less snowfall has prevented the full release of demand. All-steel tire demand is weak due to the off-season, with the market focusing on cash collection.
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