Carbon Black Monthly - Issue 202601

Carbon Black Market Analysis

1. Carbon Black Market Analysis

In January, carbon black prices saw varying degrees of slight increases. As of January 27th, the average monthly price of mainstream N330 carbon black was: Shandong 6400 yuan/ton; Shanxi 6206 yuan/ton; Hebei 6483 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 6406 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 6444 yuan/ton.

The significant increase in raw material prices during the month led to a substantial rise in new orders for carbon black. However, the downstream tire market resisted high prices, and previously low-priced orders were still being fulfilled, limiting the actual increase in market prices. The carbon black market was operating at a loss, putting pressure on costs, and market prices remained high.

Plant operating rates declined slightly during the month, reducing supply pressure in the market. Around the Spring Festival holiday in the next cycle, downstream tire operating rates are expected to decline, narrowing market demand and affecting market supply. It is anticipated that the carbon black market will consolidate with prices remaining stable, with limited room for further price increases.

Market Outlook:

Looking ahead to next month, February 2026 coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, leading to a decline in the operating rate of the carbon black market. This will reduce market supply, with manufacturers primarily fulfilling pre-holiday orders. New order negotiations will decrease, and the tire market will also experience a decline in operating rates during the Spring Festival. Therefore, the carbon black market has limited room to maintain stable prices for new orders and is expected to maintain a narrow range of adjustments.

Comparison of Average Monthly Carbon Black Prices

Upstream Raw Material Market Analysis

2.1 High-Temperature Coal Tar Market Analysis

In January, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued its upward trend. On the one hand, affected by the widening losses of coking plants, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium-sized enterprises declined, resulting in a slight decrease in high-temperature coal tar production. On the other hand, driven by rising coal tar prices, most downstream products showed an upward trend, leading to higher operating rates and exacerbating the tight supply and demand situation for coal tar. Coupled with the continued market rise and the "buy high, sell low" mentality, the supply of coal tar became even tighter. However, by the end of the month, as prices continued to rise and the follow-up price increases of downstream products decreased significantly, deep-processing enterprises also faced losses, and market momentum weakened.

2.2 Anthracene Oil Market Analysis

The anthracene oil market in January showed a sustained upward trend. In the first ten days, positive news regarding raw material prices emerged, with further price increases expected. Coupled with news about anthracene oil substitutes, this dual influence led to increased room for price increases by anthracene oil holders, leaving no low-priced options available. In the middle of the month, the raw material market continued its strong upward trend, with anthracene oil holders actively selling.

However, the increased supply in the market and the weak implementation of new orders in the downstream carbon black market led to increasing pressure on purchasing prices. Prices continued to rise in Shandong, while the upward momentum weakened in Shanxi. Towards the end of the month, the upward momentum of anthracene oil weakened due to dragging demand, and actual transaction volume decreased.

At the end of the month, the price of high-temperature coal tar, a raw material, stopped rising and began to fall, increasing the risk of a decline in the anthracene oil market. Overall, the anthracene oil market saw a significant upward trend in January, but the rate of increase gradually narrowed.

Carbon Black Industry Profit Statistics

In January, the profit margin of the carbon black market declined. The price increase in the carbon black market failed to keep pace with the increase in the raw material market, leading to a widening of losses in the carbon black market. Taking Shandong carbon black enterprises producing N330 as an example, the average theoretical profit margin for the carbon black industry in January was -532 yuan/ton.

Market Operating Rate Statistics for This Month

1. Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis

The carbon black market operating rate in January was 66.5%, a slight decrease compared to December 2025. No large-scale plants started or stopped in January; major manufacturers opted for partial line maintenance. However, due to heating and gas supply demands in northern regions, the decrease in operating rate was not significant. Southern regions remained at low levels. Overall, the carbon black market operating rate declined.

2. Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China in January was 71%; the operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 61%.

During the month, tire companies showed significant differences in production, with operating rates fluctuating. Some semi-steel tire companies with a large proportion of EU exports gradually increased their foreign trade orders, leading to some companies increasing production during the month.

Other companies maintained production control, resulting in limited increases in the operating rate of semi-steel tires. Regarding all-steel tires, the month is the seasonal off-season, with slow shipments and high overall inventory levels. To control inventory growth, some sample companies are implementing production cuts, dragging down operating rates.

Production

China's carbon black production in January 2026 is estimated at 525,400 tons, a decrease of 20,600 tons from the previous month, representing a month-on-month decrease of 3.77%.

Import and Export Data and Trends

According to customs data, my country's carbon black imports in December were 23,600 tons, up 45.74% month-on-month and 0.28% year-on-year, with cumulative imports reaching 313,000 tons, up 3.66% year-on-year.

According to customs data, my country's carbon black exports in December 2025 were 115,700 tons, up 21.95% month-on-month and 9.32% year-on-year, with cumulative exports reaching 1,178,200 tons, up 21.95% year-on-year.

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