Carbon Black Weekly Report: Cost Support
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
Domestic carbon black prices rose this week. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7400 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7100 yuan/ton; Hebei 7400 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7500 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7400 yuan/ton. During the week, new orders in the raw material market were expected to continue rising, with costs remaining favorable to the market.
Carbon black manufacturers showed a clear willingness to maintain prices, and downstream purchasing activity increased, with new orders also showing a willingness to maintain prices. However, end-users faced significant operating pressure and had limited capacity to accept high prices. The increase in new orders during the week also created some negotiation pressure, resulting in the carbon black market maintaining a narrow range of price consolidation this week.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 7336.5 as of July 30, an increase of 42 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
The domestic high-temperature coal tar market showed a significant upward trend this period. The market was relatively strong this week, further boosted by the sharp rise in auction prices in Wuhai. Currently, some coking plants in certain regions are reducing production, leading to a decrease in expected coal tar supply. Downstream operating rates remain high, and a new pricing cycle for carbon black is approaching at the end of the month. Therefore, driven by these favorable factors, the coal tar market has room for further price increases.
2.2 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Anthracene Oil
This period saw a slight upward trend in some domestic anthracene oil prices. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market was in a wait-and-see mode this week, with the sharp rise in auction prices in Wuhai further boosting the market. Given the overall strengthening trend in the high-temperature coal tar market, anthracene oil manufacturers are generally inclined to raise prices, currently maintaining cautious quotations.
Downstream carbon black is showing some price support as the end of the month approaches, and there is also immediate demand. With multiple favorable supply and demand factors, the anthracene oil market is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.
3. Carbon Black Market Outlook
Looking ahead to the next cycle, the domestic carbon black market is expected to maintain firm prices for new orders, while the raw material coal tar market is seeing a significant increase in new orders. Cost factors are influencing market sentiment, leading to price increases in quoted prices.
Downstream buyers are more inclined to buy, but most new orders have already been signed, and after the price increase, most transactions will be negotiated on a small scale. The market is expected to consolidate with a slightly bullish bias in the short term.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, the increase in new orders for raw material coal tar has increased cost pressure, limiting the potential for further price increases in the carbon black market. Increased operating pressure on production facilities is leading to a decline in profits. The carbon black market is expected to remain in a state of slight profit throughout the cycle. Currently, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous cycle.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market was 64%. The operating rate of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market declined and consolidated. During the period, a factory in Shanxi underwent maintenance, and a factory in Shandong had planned maintenance. Other large factories operated normally. The market operating rate declined this week.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China was 64%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China was 64%.
The operating situation of sample enterprises varied during the period. Semi-steel tire enterprises resumed operations after maintenance, leading to a recovery in the operating rate. However, some small-scale enterprises still underwent maintenance at the end of the month, limiting the overall increase in operating rate. Some sample enterprises in the all-steel tire market planned maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the operating rate.
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