Carbon Black Weekly Report: Market Volatility
Carbon Black Market Analysis
1.1 Carbon Black Market Price Analysis
This week, domestic carbon black prices remained largely stable across most regions, with only a few areas experiencing slight increases. As of Thursday, prices were: Shandong 7400 yuan/ton; Shanxi 7200 yuan/ton; Hebei 7400 yuan/ton; Guangzhou 7400 yuan/ton; and Zhejiang 7400 yuan/ton. The raw material coal tar market is expected to rise this week, with costs continuing to support market quotations.
However, downstream buyers remain resistant to high prices, leading to decreased purchasing activity and downward pressure on prices. Actual transaction volume is low. In the short term, the market is characterized by both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in market uncertainty. Carbon black prices are likely to remain stable.
1.2 Carbon Black Market Index Analysis
According to data from TuDuoDuo, the carbon black price index was 7310 as of June 4th, an increase of 45 from the previous period.
2. Raw Material Market Analysis
2.1 Weekly Average Price Analysis of Coal Tar
The domestic high-temperature coal tar market showed a clear upward trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the market temporarily consolidated and adopted a wait-and-see approach. Towards the end of the week, as market auction prices were released, the upward trend continued, although the rate of increase narrowed slightly.
With the continuous rise in the market and a less optimistic outlook for the product, downstream buying sentiment gradually stabilized. However, downstream operating rates remained high, and demand remained strong. Furthermore, there were expectations of tightening coal tar supply in some regions. Therefore, the market is expected to remain firm at a high level in the short term.
2.2 Anthracene Oil Weekly Average Price Analysis
The domestic anthracene oil market price continued its upward trend this period. The price of new orders for the raw material, high-temperature coal tar, continued to rise, providing significant upward support for the anthracene oil market. Suppliers mainly continued to raise prices to test the waters. However, downstream demand for high-priced anthracene oil in the anthracene oil hydrogenation market was limited, with purchases essentially halted.
The main downstream market remained the carbon black market. Currently, the upward momentum in new orders for carbon black is weakening, and many industry players are avoiding profit pressure by adopting a strategy of lowering anthracene oil purchase prices. In the short term, the potential for further significant price increases in anthracene oil is limited.
3. Carbon Black Market Forecast
Looking ahead to the next period, domestic high-temperature coal tar auction prices will be released successively, continuing the upward trend. Currently, favorable factors still dominate the market. However, after the previous price increases, actual order prices are still under negotiation. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, putting significant pressure on further price increases. It is expected that new orders will maintain a price increase this week, but the potential for further increases is limited.
4. Carbon Black Industry N330 Profit Analysis
Taking Shandong as an example, due to the continued rise in raw material coal tar prices, downstream factories faced increased cost pressure. However, some products were already under pressure to follow suit, resulting in a narrowing of profit margins for carbon black enterprises this week, with many returning to losses. As of now, the theoretical weekly profit for the carbon black industry is -165 yuan/ton, compared to -201 yuan/ton in the previous period.
5. Market Operating Rate Statistics This Week
5.1 Carbon Black Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rates of sample enterprises in the domestic carbon black market saw narrow adjustments, with some large plants experiencing increases. Maintenance shutdowns at some enterprises in North and East China offset some of the operating data, resulting in limited fluctuations in overall operating rates, showing a slight upward trend.
5.2 Downstream Market Operating Rate Analysis
The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 70%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 68%.
Overall, tire shipments were lackluster this period, while inventory levels continued to rise. Most domestic tire manufacturers have yet to finalize their monthly pricing policies, with only a few launching monthly price adjustment programs; the majority remain on the sidelines.
Weak domestic end-user demand continues to drag down tire replacement demand. Some companies reported reduced export orders, which may further increase overall production and sales pressure, compounded by persistent raw material costs. Some companies anticipate a further decline in operating rates in the future.
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