Caustic soda weekly report: The main alumina purchase price has been continuously reduced, it is difficult to find good news in the market, and the main contract has been replaced(December 19, 2024)

I. Analysis of the caustic soda market this week

1. Overview of the spot market

(1) Analysis of the liquid caustic soda market

This week, the liquid caustic soda market showed an overall weak downward trend. The decline in some areas was slightly larger than last week, and some areas fell and consolidated. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, 32% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 20-210 yuan/ton, 50% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 30-220 yuan/ton, 49% ion membrane fell by 60 yuan/ton, 48% ion membrane fell by 100 yuan/ton, and 50% caustic soda rose by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of other concentrations of caustic soda are temporarily stable. This week, the price of December alumina liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province continued to decline, with a reduction of 10-20 yuan/ton. Under the influence of negative factors, the bearish sentiment of the industry players in the market was high. The market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province fell again. The market prices in other regions were affected by the decline. In addition, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises in various regions to receive goods was not high, and they followed the decline and adjusted, with different declines. In the later period of the week, high-concentration caustic soda rose steadily, and some regions rose by 100 yuan/ton. Some enterprises were affected by the power restriction policy in the region and the load was reduced. The spot inventory pressure was not great. The market price was slightly raised under the support of the supply side, while other regions maintained stable operation. There was no obvious change in the supply and demand sides in other individual regions. The downstream receiving situation was general. The market trading atmosphere mostly maintained the previous level. Therefore, there was no obvious adjustment in the price range for the time being, and most of the industry players were cautious and wait-and-see. The upstream production enterprises that adjusted prices were mainly concentrated in Shandong Province, and the quotation was adjusted downward. The North China, East China and other regions mainly followed the decline. Most manufacturers in other regions stabilized prices and waited and saw, and their mentality of adjusting prices was relatively cautious.

(2) Analysis of the caustic soda flake market
This week, the market price of caustic soda flakes was stable with a slight increase. The trading atmosphere in the market fell slightly compared with the previous period. The new order quotations of manufacturers in most regions remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the ex-factory prices of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong region remained stable, and the transaction atmosphere was lukewarm. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the new order prices of manufacturers in the northwest region were announced one after another. Most manufacturers did not see obvious adjustments, and sporadic quotations rose. The pre-sale situation of some manufacturers was still good, and the delivery of pre-sale order contracts was mainly; in the latter part of the week, the market price in some areas rose slightly. Supported by the tight supply in the region, the ex-warehouse price was slightly increased, with an increase of 25-50 yuan/ton. However, the downstream demand did not see a significant improvement, and the trading atmosphere in the market declined compared with the previous period. The actual transaction prices of most manufacturers' supply did not fluctuate much, and the caustic soda flake manufacturers were cautious in adjusting prices.

2. Analysis of the futures market
(1) Analysis of futures trends
The futures price of the caustic soda SH2501 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The main contract was transferred to the SH2505 contract during the week. Changes in positions of caustic soda 2501 contract during the week: 3438 lots were reduced last Friday, 5330 lots were reduced on Monday, and 6266 lots were reduced on Tuesday. 05 contract: 7004 lots were increased on Wednesday, 12571 lots were increased on Thursday, and 64237 lots of SH2505 contract were held as of Thursday's close, with a closing price of 2691.

3. Caustic soda market price this week

4. Domestic caustic soda price index

According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda spot index was 3046.03 on December 19, down 146.83 from the same period last week, a range of 4.60%, and the domestic caustic soda index fell during the week.

II. Forecast for caustic soda market outlook
This week, the caustic soda market continued to fluctuate weakly, and the price trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda markets were still differentiated. The liquid caustic soda market continued to decline in most areas, while the price of flake caustic soda rose steadily. In the later period, the current weak position of the liquid caustic soda market is difficult to change, and it is difficult to find favorable factors to support it. Most production facilities maintain normal and stable operation, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, the downstream demand has not seen a significant improvement, and the rigid demand for replenishment has entered the market, and the inventory pressure of some enterprises has increased; Shandong Alumina's purchase price of liquid caustic soda has been continuously reduced, which has a certain negative impact on the prices of local and surrounding markets. Some operators in the market are bearish on the future market, and the market transaction is light; non-aluminum downstream demand has also weakened, and the operating rates of industries such as viscose staple fibers and printing and dyeing have declined, and the rigid demand for caustic soda has decreased. Other industries are mainly based on rigid demand purchases. In the traditional off-season, downstream demand is difficult to boost, and prices may still be somewhat negative in the later period. Overall, it is expected that the liquid caustic soda market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and some regions with high-concentration caustic soda may rebound due to the support of the supply side. The pre-sale order signing situation of some manufacturers in the caustic soda flake market is still good, and the delivery is mainly pre-sale orders. The ex-factory prices of most manufacturers remain stable; the supply in some areas is tight, and the delivery is not smooth, which has a certain positive support for the market price. However, the market transactions in most areas are tepid, and the cautious wait-and-see sentiment of the industry in the market remains unchanged. It is expected that the market price of caustic soda flakes will be stable in the short term, and the fluctuation range will be relatively limited.

III. Downstream alumina prices