PP: Export order growth weaker than expected

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins of the two oils is 805,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous day.

Futures analysis: On May 21, PP2509 opened at 7046, the highest price was 7077, the lowest price was 7035, the position was 430911, the settlement price was 7052, yesterday's settlement was 7056, the decline was 4, the daily trading volume was 230394 lots, the deposited funds were 2.128 billion, and the capital inflow was 22.5 million.

Analysis of the domestic spot market: Today, the domestic PP market as a whole showed a trend of range consolidation, among which the market price in North China remained stable, the market price in East China rose slightly, and the market price in other regions was weak, with an overall range of 10-50 yuan/ton. In terms of price: the mainstream price of domestic polypropylene ranged from 7110 to 7340 yuan/ton.

The concerns about the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market have eased, and international oil prices have fallen slightly. Although the market is affected by the maintenance of some PP units, the supply pressure is not great, but the increase in export orders on the demand side is weaker than expected, demand support is limited, and the trading situation in the market is general.

Analysis of the domestic futures market: The night market price of the PP2509 contract has been consolidated in a small range; it fluctuated upward after the opening of the morning market, and fell back to the intraday high of 7077; the price fell first and then rose in the afternoon. As of today's afternoon closing, the PP2509 contract fluctuated between 7035 and 7077 throughout the day, with a spread of 42.09 contracts and an increase of 4134 lots. As of now, the position is 430,911 lots.

Forecast for the future market: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market may be affected by favorable factors such as the weakening of the US tariff policy pressure and the continuation of the US sanctions policy on oil-producing countries, as well as the negative factors such as OPEC+ maintaining its position of increasing production and weak global crude oil demand.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of related changes on international oil prices. On the supply side, although the shutdown of PP units has caused a narrow decline in volume, it is still at a relatively high level, and there are still plans for centralized maintenance of PP units. It is expected that there will be little pressure on supply in the short term. 

On the demand side, it is still in the traditional off-season, and downstream demand is still tepid, and there is no obvious positive support for the PP market. Overall, it is expected that the polypropylene market may fluctuate in the short term.

Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 7201.00 on May 21, down 11, a range of 0.15%.

Guoneng auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 2,357 tons, an increase of 3.70% from yesterday; the transaction volume was 1,527, an increase of 27.78% from yesterday, and the transaction rate was 64.79%, an increase of 12.21% from yesterday.

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