Domestic PE Market Trends on September 29th

Domestic Petrochemical Inventories: Polyolefin inventories from both crude and crude oils reached 560,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from yesterday.

PE Spot Market Analysis: Domestic PE market prices continued to trend steadily with some adjustments. In North China, only low-pressure wire drawing grades remained stable, while prices for linear, high-pressure, and low-pressure wire drawing grades all saw some adjustments. In East China, only linear grades saw a price decrease, while prices for high-pressure, low-pressure film, and low-pressure wire drawing grades remained stable. In South China, prices for linear, high-pressure, low-pressure wire drawing, and low-pressure film grades all remained unchanged from yesterday.

Currently, ex-factory prices for PE manufacturers are generally stable, with only some companies lowering their quotations based on their inventory levels and sales rhythms, with price adjustments ranging from 20 to 100 yuan/ton. From the market demand side, downstream factories have largely completed their pre-stocking efforts. Current purchases are primarily focused on meeting short-term rigid production needs, with little willingness to proactively replenish inventory.

Overall purchasing enthusiasm is moderate, and delivery capacity is also limited. Affected by sluggish performance on both the supply and demand sides, market prices are experiencing a narrow range of adjustment, with a subdued trading atmosphere and no positive signals yet to signal a market recovery.

PE Spot Price Forecast: In the futures market, the L2601 contract price initially dipped in the evening session before fluctuating upward. Near the end of trading, it reached an intraday high before retreating. Prices continued their downward trend in the morning session, consolidating at a relatively low level before fluctuating upward again in the afternoon session. On the supply side, today, the PE units of Lianyungang Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical are expected to conclude maintenance shutdowns and resume production, releasing a total of 450,000 tons/year of production capacity.

Meanwhile, the PE units of China Coal and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will be extended for the day, adding a total of 900,000 tons of production capacity. Overall, supply is characterized by a balance of partial increases and decreases, but still a relatively loose supply structure. Demand remains weak, with downstream companies lacking the motivation to proactively purchase goods. In addition, some factories are experiencing a slight decline in operating rates to mitigate inventory risks as the holiday approaches, providing limited support for market prices. The current PE market lacks a clear driving force, and overall performance remains relatively flat.

Overall, the release of new production capacity will exacerbate supply-side easing pressures, while demand is unlikely to see substantial improvement due to the approaching holiday, declining production, and insufficient demand. This imbalance between supply and demand may become more pronounced. Combined with the current lack of strong cost support and positive market news, the polyethylene market is unlikely to see a significant boost in the short term and is likely to remain weak and consolidate until clear signs of a post-holiday demand recovery emerge.

Mainstream PE Market Quotes:

PE Futures Analysis: September 29th, L2601 Opening Price: 7173, High: 7198, Low: 7152, Open Interest: 537,691, Settlement Price: 7174, Yesterday's Settlement: 7163, Up 11, Daily Trading Volume: 197,037 Contracts, Deposited Funds: 2.703 Billion, Outflow: 76.41 Million.

Domestic PE Index: According to Tuduoduo data, on September 29th, the domestic HDPE spot index was 7613, down 6%; the LDPE film spot index was 9424, down 4%; and the LLDPE spot index was 7271, down 3%.

Shenhua Auction Statistics: Today's linear auction volume was 300 tons, and today's transaction volume was 200 tons.

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