Domestic PP Market Analysis (May 20, 2025)

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The inventory of polyolefins of the two oils is 815,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from the previous day.

Futures analysis: On May 20, PP 2509 opened at 7081, the highest price was 7088, the lowest price was 7029, the position was 426777, the settlement price was 7056, yesterday's settlement was 7093, the decline was 37, the daily trading volume was 264,900 lots, the deposited funds were 2.105 billion, and the capital inflow was 50.15 million.

Analysis of the domestic spot market: Today, the overall domestic PP market showed a trend of continued loosening. Except for the stable market prices in the southwest region, the market prices in other regions fell, ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton. In terms of price: the mainstream price of domestic polypropylene ranged from 7110 to 7390 yuan/ton.

International oil prices rose on the cost side, but their increase was suppressed by the crude oil market's concerns about the US economy and demand prospects, and the support for the PP market was limited. Although some PP units in the market were shut down for maintenance and the supply pressure was not great, the favorable tariff policy failed to alleviate the pressure of weak terminal demand, and the overall transaction situation was weak.

Analysis of the domestic futures market: The PP2509 contract price range was consolidated in the night market; it fluctuated downward after the opening of the morning market; the price fell first and then rose in the afternoon.

As of today's afternoon closing, the PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of 7029-7088 throughout the day, with a spread of 59, and the 09 contract increased its position by 11,992 lots, and the current position was 426,777 lots.

Forecast for the future market: In terms of raw materials, the crude oil market may be affected by favorable factors such as the instability of the geopolitical situation and the reduction of trade risk concerns, as well as negative factors such as OPEC+'s production increase expectations and weak crude oil demand.

It is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of related changes on international oil prices. In terms of supply, the impact of the shutdown of the on-site units may be expected to fall slightly.

In terms of demand, the traditional off-season of downstream orders and the continued weakness of domestic demand this year are expected to limit the room for demand growth. Overall, the polypropylene market is expected to fluctuate in the short term.

Domestic PP Index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic PP spot index was 7212.00 on May 20, down 11, a range of 0.15%.

Guoneng auction statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 2273 tons, an increase of 3.60% from yesterday; the transaction volume was 1195, an increase of 13.81% from yesterday, and the transaction rate was 52.57%, an increase of 4.72% from yesterday.

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