Domestic PP Market Oct 29 Analysis

October 31, 2025, 11:35 AM

TDD-global

1492

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Domestic polyolefin inventories of Sinopec and PetroChina dropped slightly to 710,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous day. On October 29, the PP2601 futures contract fluctuated during the night session, rising in the morning but retreating under pressure before recovering in the afternoon, ending with a net increase of 1313 lots in open interest. The domestic PP spot market showed slight weakness, with East China prices edging down while other regions remained stable, trading between 6410–6660 yuan/ton. Market sentiment remained cautious, as suppliers held prices steady with minor adjustments (±30–150 yuan/ton), downstream buyers purchased only for immediate needs, and traders adopted flexible pricing to move volume. Supply remains ample, with Shaoxing Sanyuan’s 200,000-ton/year PP plant resuming operations, adding pressure on inventory drawdowns. However, demand outlook shows marginal improvement, supported by early Double Eleven-driven packaging demand. Cost factors are mixed: geopolitical tensions support crude prices, but OPEC+ output policies and weak global demand cap upside. Futures reflect a balanced bullish-bearish standoff, suggesting near-term range-bound trading. The domestic PP index stood at 6549.00, down 2 points (-0.03%). Guoneng’s auction volume surged by 153.71% to 1245.725 tons, with 1151.725 tons sold (92.45% clearance rate), up 134.75% in volume but down 7.55% in rate.

Domestic petrochemical inventory: The combined inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina's polyolefins reached 710,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from yesterday.

Futures Analysis: On October 29th, the PP2601 contract price fluctuated upwards in the night session. After rising in the morning, prices faced downward pressure and fell back, before rebounding in the afternoon. The 01 contract saw an increase of 1313 lots in open interest. Open price: 6654, highest price: 6690, lowest price: 6635, price difference: 55, open interest: 612658, settlement price: 6665, previous settlement price: 6676, decrease: 11, daily trading volume: 201901 lots, idle funds: 2.867 billion, capital inflow: 18.13 million.

Mainstream market prices for PP (rough grade):

Domestic spot market analysis: Today, the domestic PP market showed an overall trend of stability with a slight downward bias. Prices in East China saw a slight decline, while prices in North China, South China, Southwest China, and Northwest China remained stable compared to yesterday. Domestic polypropylene prices ranged from 6410 to 6660 yuan/ton.

The current PP market exhibits a pattern of "stable supply with some adjustments, demand driven by essential needs, and overall cautious sentiment." On the supply side, most PP producers maintained their existing ex-factory prices to ensure market stability, with only a few adjusting prices based on their own circumstances. These adjustments ranged from 30 to 150 yuan/ton, while some specific grades saw price increases due to supply and demand or cost support, resulting in a "mainstream stable, localized adjustments" characteristic. Overall, market prices were weak.

Traders adopted a market-driven pricing strategy to boost sales, while downstream enterprises, given the current market uncertainty, only replenished their inventories based on essential needs, without actively increasing inventory. This directly led to generally weak overall market transactions. From a market sentiment perspective, both traders' control over shipment pace and downstream restocking scale reflect a cautious wait-and-see attitude, further restricting the improvement of market activity.

Market Outlook: The current PP market is in a state of intertwined bullish and bearish factors. On the cost side, the continuation of US sanctions against oil-producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties provide support, while OPEC+'s stance of maintaining increased production, coupled with weak global economic and demand performance, puts downward pressure on costs, creating a direct tug-of-war.

On the supply and demand side, a 200,000-ton-per-year PP plant in Shaoxing Sanyuan is expected to resume production today, which will further exacerbate the current situation of ample spot supply and slow inventory reduction.

However, there are expectations of marginal improvement on the demand side. Although downstream purchases are currently mainly for immediate needs, the Double Eleven shopping festival has begun to release positive signals in areas such as packaging, becoming a key factor in boosting market expectations.

Affected by this, the futures market is showing a range-bound consolidation trend, with bullish and bearish forces temporarily in equilibrium. In the short term, the polypropylene market is expected to maintain a low-level, narrow-range fluctuation.

Domestic PP Index: According to data from TuDuoDuo, the domestic PP spot index was 6549.00 on October 29th, down 2 points, a decrease of 0.03%.

Guoneng Auction Statistics: Guoneng Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1245.725 tons, an increase of 153.71% compared to yesterday; the transaction volume was 1151.725 tons, an increase of 134.75% compared to yesterday, with a transaction rate of 92.45%, a decrease of 7.55% compared to yesterday.

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