Natural rubber: Frequent high-level fluctuations
Index
On June 3rd, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2395/ton, up $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Rainfall in Thai producing areas decreased compared to the previous week, leading to a continued increase in raw material supply. Local demand improved, and factories continued to rush to collect raw materials for production. Southern Vietnam experienced thunderstorms, but short-term rainfall had limited impact on tapping operations. The producing areas have entered a production increase phase, with the tapping rate continuing to rise and new rubber output showing a significant increase compared to the previous week.
Domestic: Rainfall improved in Yunnan producing areas, leading to a surge in raw material supply. However, processing plants continued their rush to collect raw materials, keeping raw material prices relatively strong.
Weather conditions in Hainan producing areas were favorable, maintaining the seasonal increase in raw material output. However, local processing plants faced increased pressure to ship their products, and the market's rush to buy raw materials at higher prices cooled, resulting in raw material purchase prices consolidating at high levels.
On the demand side: It is understood that there were differences in production schedules among enterprises at the beginning of the month. Some semi-steel tire manufacturers were constrained by order and inventory pressures, resulting in lower production schedules.
Most all-steel tire manufacturers maintained relatively good operating rates, although some individual companies faced production pressure. Overall, the supply side weakened, with slow shipments at the beginning of the month and relatively ample overall inventory.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market continued its range-bound trading pattern, while the natural rubber spot market remained stable, with overall performance being moderate. Tapping in domestic and international producing areas continued to increase, but overseas factories actively produced to fulfill orders, maintaining a strong demand for raw materials.
High raw material procurement prices provided strong support for rubber prices from the cost side, leading to continuous increases in spot prices and a significant decline in market buying sentiment. In the short term, rubber prices may consolidate at high levels.
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