Natural Rubber Market Analysis (March 25)
Index
On March 25th, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index was $2005/ton, up $15/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise, with a significant price difference maintained. Thailand is largely in a state of cessation of tapping, resulting in tight raw material supply. Factories have restocking needs, driving up procurement prices. Vietnam's producing areas are currently in their seasonal cessation of tapping, with small-scale trial tapping expected to begin in late March or early April, followed by large-scale tapping across the entire producing area in April.
Domestic: The tapping area in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan is limited, resulting in low yields. Some latex plants are offering higher prices to secure supplies, with most latex flowing into these plants.
The rubber trees in Hainan are generally growing well, which is conducive to the timely progress of the tapping plan. According to research, the Hainan production area will begin tapping in Lingshui, Wanning, and Baoting areas by the end of March, with a few areas in Baisha and Danzhou entering trial tapping. The main production areas will gradually begin tapping around the Qingming Festival.
On the demand side: It is understood that most tire companies are maintaining stable production. Driven by the price increase news, companies are shipping in concentrated quantities. Some companies are experiencing shortages of all-steel and semi-steel tires and are actively building up inventory to meet order demand. Some companies still have queues for shipment.
In the short term, the supply side will remain stable to meet demand, but as the price increase is implemented, the production and sales pressure on some companies will gradually increase.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, driven by external macroeconomic sentiment, futures prices rose sharply, and spot offers followed suit. Domestic production areas have entered the tapping season, and domestic new rubber is gradually being released. However, overseas output remains low, boosting factory restocking demand and driving up raw material procurement prices.
In the short term, there is still support on the cost side. As overseas geopolitical events continue to escalate, synthetic rubber is leading the price increase, and the correlation with other commodities may also drive up the price of natural rubber. The natural rubber market is expected to experience short-term upward volatility.
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