Natural rubber: Continues to decline (June 10)
Index
On June 10th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2300/ton, down $20/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Recent rainfall has decreased in northeastern Thailand while increasing in the south, leading to a continued increase in raw material supply, although the increase is limited. Localized thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in Vietnam's producing areas have disrupted tapping operations at times, but the overall production cycle remains strong.
Domestic: Sporadic rainfall in Yunnan's producing areas has led to an upward trend in raw material prices. Localized rain disturbances in Hainan's producing areas have had limited impact, and with the easing of high temperatures, tapping operations are proceeding smoothly, maintaining a seasonal increase in raw material production.
On the demand side: It is understood that production at all-steel tire manufacturers varies. Some companies are affected by external factors and have extended maintenance plans, which is dragging down the supply side. Most other companies are operating steadily, with some reducing production to alleviate cost pressures. Overall, the supply side is weak.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated and weakened, with spot offers following suit. Holders had limited willingness to sell at lower prices. On the supply side, recent weather conditions in domestic and international production areas have had varying degrees of impact, but the overall supply side is entering a seasonal production increase period, and the expectation of increased raw material supply is unlikely to change, resulting in significant cost pressure.
On the demand side, prices are weak. Downstream tire factories are entering the off-season, and sluggish end-user demand limits the upside potential of rubber prices. The weak supply and demand situation is unlikely to change in the short term, and the downward trend of natural rubber prices may already be clear.
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