Natural Rubber Market Price Analysis(July 1st)

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on July 1

Index

On July 1, the STR20 price index of the natural rubber Qingdao market was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: Some areas of the Thai production area are still disturbed by rainfall, but the rubber tapping operation has gradually resumed. The raw material procurement price has obviously weakened during the cycle. Some factories have increased the price to rush to produce raw materials, and the price of raw materials has fallen slowly. The Vietnamese production area is currently in the seasonal increase stage as a whole, but there are still precipitation weather disturbances, and the rhythm of raw material production is slow. Some processing plants have stated that their production profits continue to lose money, which to a certain extent suppresses their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials. The factory's price-cutting purchase drags down the price of raw materials.

Domestic: There is more rainfall in the Yunnan production area, which affects the normal rubber tapping operation. The resistance to raw material acquisition has not decreased. The phenomenon of processing plants raising prices to rush to collect raw materials still exists, and the purchase price in the region remains high. In the Hainan production area, due to the poor transaction of concentrated milk spot market at high prices, the profit margin of processing plants has been squeezed. During the week, the sentiment of some concentrated milk processing plants to rush to buy raw materials at high prices has obviously cooled down, and the center of gravity of glue purchase prices has slightly declined.

Demand: It is understood that some semi-steel tire and full-steel tire companies have storage and maintenance arrangements, most of which are 5-7 days, which will have a certain drag on the overall output of tire companies at the beginning of the month. The concentrated sales in the domestic and foreign trade markets during the month are conducive to the destocking of enterprises, but the overall demand performance is poor and the destocking range is limited.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future

The closing price of the main rubber contract today adjusted narrowly, with a slightly higher trend. On the supply side, the expectation of raw material volume has increased, cost support has begun to weaken, downstream demand is in the off-season, and the active type of high-price purchases is relatively limited. Spot pressure Qingdao Port spot total warehouse has a significant accumulation rhythm, market trading sentiment is weak, and it is expected that the short-term rubber price may remain weak.

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