Natural Rubber Market: Price Drop

Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 23

Index

On June 23, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1,680 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

Futures market

Spot market

Supply:

Foreign: The continuous rain in the Thai production area has caused continuous obstruction of rubber tapping, and some factories have increased the price to compete for raw material production, and the price of raw materials has continued to rise during the cycle; the Vietnamese production area has basically started tapping, but due to the rainy season, the supply of raw materials in the market is tight, and the processing plants still need to purchase raw materials at high prices to meet production needs.

Domestic: Frequent rainfall in the Yunnan production area affects the rubber tapping process, the supply of raw materials continues to be tight, the acquisition resistance remains unchanged, the concentrated milk factory remains strong, the standard rubber processing factory has difficulty in acquiring raw materials, and the acquisition price in the region remains strong. The weather conditions in the Hainan production area have improved, and rubber tapping has gradually resumed, but the overall seasonal increase in new rubber is slow, and the competition for raw material procurement in the market has intensified, driving the acquisition price of rubber to rise continuously.

Demand: It is understood that the equipment of the semi-steel tire enterprises under maintenance has not been restarted, the capacity utilization rate of most other enterprises is stable, and the semi-steel tire enterprises are running weakly. However, the overall shipment performance of enterprises has not seen significant improvement, the market is slow, the domestic sales performance of factories has further weakened, and the foreign trade shipments of some enterprises are still good, which provides certain support for the overall situation.

List of futures and spot prices

Forecast for the future market

The closing price of the main rubber contract today showed a weakening trend, overseas raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was expected to weaken. Although the macro sentiment has been boosted, the demand in the terminal market remains relatively weak, and the rubber price increase is insufficient. Overall, the negative factors in the rubber market have strengthened, and it is expected that the short-term rubber price may continue to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

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