Natural Rubber Market Analysis (December 26)
Index
On December 26th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1880/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Weather in Thailand is generally returning to normal, and there are signs of easing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. Most areas in the northeast are in the peak tapping season, and factories are starting to stockpile raw materials, keeping cup lump prices relatively firm. Supply in the southern producing areas is gradually increasing, dragging down latex prices. Weather in Vietnam is gradually returning to normal, with no extreme weather disrupting tapping operations.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan are mainly stable, and the producing areas have entered the off-season. In Hainan, tapping has basically stopped in the central and eastern parts, while some rubber plantations in the western region are still tapping normally. Meanwhile, the dry content of fresh latex has dropped to a low level, and some private processing plants have gradually stopped production. The overall market sentiment for raw material procurement is weakening, and raw material prices are falling.
On the demand side: It is understood that the tire market is experiencing sluggish trading and weak prices. Actual transactions are mainly negotiated on a case-by-case basis, with ample room for negotiation. Market supply is plentiful, and inventory reduction is the core focus. At the end of the month, some agents are still replenishing their stock to meet performance targets, but most distributors are focusing on inventory digestion, resulting in weak market activity. Concentrated sales are expected to be released at the beginning of the following month. The concentrated shipments at the end of the month on the export side are providing some support to overall shipment volume.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract continued its range-bound trading pattern, with an overall weak trend. Domestic production areas have basically entered the off-season, while overseas production continues at its peak. Upstream factories are moderately stocking up, limiting the downside potential for raw material prices. A decrease in overseas shipments is expected, which may slow the accumulation of port inventories, potentially providing short-term support for the natural rubber market.
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