Natural Rubber Market Sep 26
Index
On September 26, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,860/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market Supply:
Overseas: Parts of northeastern Thailand continued to experience periodic rainfall disturbances, while weather in southern Thailand improved, with a gradual increase in production. This increased raw material output, dragging down raw material prices. Typhoons and rainfall impacted Vietnamese production areas, resulting in a contraction in glue supply. Meanwhile, processors were actively fulfilling orders and continued to purchase, supporting an upward trend in glue prices.
Domestic: Improved weather in Yunnan production areas led to a gradual increase in production, coupled with a decline in futures and spot prices. Raw material prices in Yunnan weakened slightly. Weather conditions in Hainan production areas were favorable, and raw material production was released normally. However, due to limited orders and profit margins, local processors were not enthusiastic about raw material harvesting, resulting in little change in raw material prices.
On the demand side: It is understood that most tire companies are currently maintaining their previous operating levels, appropriately stockpiling post-holiday inventory, with overall operating rates primarily undergoing minor adjustments. Some small-scale semi-steel tire manufacturers, due to insufficient orders, have entered early maintenance for the National Day holiday, slightly dragging down semi-steel tire operating and utilization rates.
Futures and Spot Price List
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract saw weak fluctuations, with spot prices fluctuating within a narrow range. Holders were reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream companies were inquiring on dips and stocking up on just-in-time demand, resulting in a cautious trading atmosphere.
Typhoon disruptions in producing areas were less than expected, coupled with subdued buying sentiment both domestically and internationally before the holiday. Raw material prices remained stable but weakened, weakening support for rubber costs. Furthermore, negative factors such as pre-holiday stockpiling and risk aversion are prevalent. Rubber prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.
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