Natural Rubber Market Update (December 17)
Index
On December 17th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1850/ton, up $15/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
Internationally: Escalating geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia affected local rubber tapping and factory production. Rainfall in the south increased slightly compared to the previous week, resulting in an overall trend of initial decline followed by a rise in raw material prices. Weather in Vietnam's producing areas is gradually returning to normal, with no extreme weather disrupting rubber tapping operations.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan's producing areas remained stable, with the producing areas entering the off-season. In Hainan's producing areas, winter has arrived, leading to a decrease in tapping frequency by local rubber farmers, and a continued decline in latex dry content. Some rubber plantations in the central and eastern regions have already ceased tapping, significantly reducing the amount of rubber available for collection on the island. Local processing plants are mainly purchasing raw materials on an as-needed basis.
Demand Side: It is understood that orders are insufficient, increasing pressure on the production capacity of some semi-steel tire manufacturers. Some enterprises in Shandong are reducing production, resulting in overall weakening output.
Recent shipments have been average, and some enterprises are experiencing rising finished product inventories, indicating continued pressure on production and sales. The market has a large inventory of snow tires, with channel payments being the primary focus, increasing pressure to continue large-scale shipments. All-season tires are mainly sold based on immediate demand.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Outlook
Today, the main rubber futures contract rose, boosting market sentiment. Holders adjusted their offers upwards. While geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia persist, market speculation has not intensified further. Rising overseas raw material prices provided some support for rubber prices. End-users remained cautious in their purchases, resulting in generally weak buying interest. The market is likely to remain in a stalemate between bulls and bears in the short term, and may continue to fluctuate within a range.
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