Natural Rubber Market Update (December 23)
Index
On December 23, the STR20 price index for natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1845/ton, up $10/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Thailand and Cambodia are affecting rubber tapping and production in surrounding areas. Shipments from some ports have temporarily halted, leading to a rise in raw material cup lump prices. Rainfall in the south has increased slightly compared to the previous period, keeping latex prices high. Weather in Vietnam's producing areas is gradually returning to normal, with no extreme weather disrupting tapping operations.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan's producing areas are mainly stable, and the producing areas have entered the off-season. Tapping has ceased in the central and eastern parts of Hainan's producing areas, while production in the western producing areas is gradually decreasing. The dry content of fresh latex has fallen to around 22%, increasing production costs for local processing plants and reducing their willingness to purchase rubber. Some private processing plants have gradually ceased operations.
On the demand side: It is understood that some all-steel tire manufacturers have recently experienced short-term production reductions due to external factors, and some other companies have planned maintenance shutdowns. The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers is weak, resulting in a slight decrease in overall supply. However, due to slow shipments, there is no significant impact on overall product supply at present, and current inventory levels are sufficient.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract traded within a narrow range. Offers from holders were generally weak. Tapping in Hainan is gradually ceasing, and factories' enthusiasm for purchasing rubber has cooled significantly.
The peak production season overseas is putting pressure on supply, Thai raw material prices are struggling to rise, downstream inquiries are not strong, and buyers are selectively replenishing their stocks at lower prices. Actual transactions are sluggish, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will likely fluctuate in the short term.
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