Natural Rubber Market Update (December 31)

January 4, 2026, 9:52 AM

TDD-global

4088

Guide

Highlights at a glance

The Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index closed at $1870 per ton on December 31, marking a slight decrease of $5 from the previous session. This report analyzes key market drivers: on the supply side, Thailand's weather normalization has increased raw material output in northeastern regions, while southern areas see growing supply pressuring latex prices. Vietnam's production remains stable without weather disruptions. Domestically, Yunnan has entered the low-production season, while Hainan's tapping activities are winding down, with most private processors halting operations by mid-January. Demand remains subdued as tire manufacturers operate at lower rates, with some plants conducting maintenance during the New Year holiday, helping to moderate inventory levels. The futures market shows range-bound trading with weak spot buying interest. Overall, market contradictions remain muted, with rubber prices expected to continue trading within a consolidated range in the near term.

Index

On December 31st, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1870/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market

Supply Side:
International: Weather in Thailand is generally returning to normal, and there are signs of easing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. Most areas in the northeast are in the peak tapping season, and factories are starting to stockpile raw materials, keeping cup lump prices relatively firm. Supply in the southern producing areas is gradually increasing, dragging down latex prices. Weather in Vietnam is gradually returning to normal, with no extreme weather disrupting tapping operations.

Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan are mainly stable, and the producing areas have entered the off-season. In Hainan, tapping is continuing in some rubber plantations in the western and southern regions, with fresh latex dry content at relatively low levels. Local private processing plants are gradually shutting down, and tapping is expected to basically stop in early January and completely cease by mid-January.

On the demand side: It is understood that some companies with maintenance plans for the New Year's Day holiday suspended production, while other companies maintained normal production. Overall, the operating rate of tire companies is low, and most companies have sufficient inventory. Moderate maintenance will, to some extent, help reduce finished product inventory.

Futures and Spot Prices Overview

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract continued its range-bound trading, with an unstable price center and quiet trading atmosphere. Localized weather disturbances in southern Thailand have led to short-term stabilization in latex prices.

With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, downstream operating rates are low, and spot market buying support is insufficient. Inventory continues to accumulate, and the contradiction between bulls and bears in the natural rubber market is not prominent at the moment, with rubber prices mainly exhibiting range-bound trading.

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