Natural Rubber Market Update (February 6)
Index
On February 6th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1940/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Rubber tapping has ceased in northern Thailand; large-scale leaf drop has occurred in northeastern Thailand, leading to a continuous decline in daily rubber production as the tapping season nears its end, resulting in a relatively strong cup lump price; leaf drop has occurred in rubber trees in southern Thailand, prompting latex factories to raise their latex purchase prices.
In Vietnam, favorable weather has led to a potential cessation of tapping in the southern regions near the Lunar New Year, resulting in a continued decline in overall rubber production. The tapping season is nearing its end, and local processing plants are actively stockpiling.
Domestic: Tapping has ceased in Yunnan and Hainan.
On the demand side: It is understood that logistics in some remote areas have been suspended, resulting in tight overall transportation capacity. Coupled with the seasonal off-season for all-steel tires, replacement market demand is only maintaining basic needs, with channel focus remaining primarily on cash flow. For semi-steel tires, increased demand from residents returning home before the Spring Festival is beneficial to the replacement market, boosting channel sales. However, simultaneous increases in new car sales during the same period constrain pre-holiday tire replacement demand to some extent.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market maintained a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. Overseas producing regions are entering their off-season, leading to a substantial reduction in raw material supply. This tightening supply provides bottom support for rubber prices.
With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, downstream tire factories are gradually shutting down for the holidays, resulting in a temporary weakening of natural rubber demand and short-term pressure on the natural rubber market. The market is expected to exhibit an overall volatile pattern.
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