Natural Rubber Market Update (January 9)
Index
On January 9th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1910/ton, down $10/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Improved international demand for dry rubber in Thailand led to higher cup lump rubber purchase prices, with factories still paying premiums, resulting in a diversion of latex production and a subsequent price increase for latex. In Vietnam, temperatures dropped, causing a decline in dry rubber content, and overall raw material production showed signs of seasonal reduction.
Domestic: Tapping has ceased in Yunnan. In Hainan, as temperatures gradually decline, the area of rubber plantations that have ceased tapping has further expanded, with only a few scattered plantations in the western region and a few areas in the south still engaged in tapping.
Demand Side: It is understood that most companies have resumed production as planned, and equipment production is gradually returning to normal levels. Overall order performance this month is acceptable, providing some support for recent production and supply. Some companies are gradually releasing their pricing policies for the month to boost shipments. Recently, due to market wait-and-see sentiment, shipments have been generally weak, but are expected to improve as companies gradually release their policies.
Futures and Spot Price Overview
Market Outlook
Today, futures prices continued their downward trend, with spot offers following suit. Increased supply is expected due to the peak rubber-tapping season in Southeast Asia, but lower temperatures in northeastern Thailand, coupled with restocking demand in the international market, suggest that overseas raw material prices may remain high.
However, if the positive sentiment surrounding commodities and the fundamentals of natural rubber have already been priced in, rubber prices may still face downward pressure.
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