Natural Rubber Market Update (March 16)
Index
On March 16th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2020/ton, up $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise, with a significant price difference maintained. Tapping has ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand; tapping is gradually ceasing in southern Thailand, leading to a tight supply of raw materials. Factories have restocking needs, driving up procurement prices.
Vietnam's production areas are currently in their seasonal off-season, with small-scale trial tapping expected to begin in late March or early April, followed by large-scale tapping across the entire production area in April.
Domestic: Good rubber tree growth in Yunnan's production areas, coupled with rainfall in some areas, has increased ground moisture, further strengthening expectations for an earlier tapping start this year. Surveys in the production areas show that most began tapping around the 20th, with the earliest factories starting around the 16th, approximately one week earlier than the same period last year.
Rubber trees in Hainan's production areas are generally growing well, which is conducive to the timely progress of the tapping plan. According to research, tire tapping in Hainan's production areas will begin in late March in Lingshui, Wanning, and Baoting, with trial tapping in a few areas of Baisha and Danzhou. The main production areas will gradually begin tapping around the Qingming Festival.
On the demand side: It is understood that domestic tire manufacturers have largely returned to normal production levels, providing some support for the overall operating rate. Furthermore, driven by expectations of price increases, all-steel tire manufacturers are seeing active domestic sales and a faster pace of inventory reduction; semi-steel tire manufacturers are experiencing relatively stable domestic and international sales, with overall shipments being relatively average.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Outlook
Today, the futures market maintained a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with spot prices rising slightly in line with the futures market. The tapping season in Yunnan is progressing steadily, and domestically produced new rubber is gradually entering the market, although initial replenishment is limited. Overseas supply is seasonally tightening, and the bottom support for rubber remains.
However, downstream purchasing intentions are relatively weak, with most purchases focused on replenishing only essential needs. Overall market trading activity is moderate. Overseas geopolitical risks remain highly uncertain, and commodity correlation is improving, leading to a continued wide-range fluctuation in the natural rubber market.
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