Natural Rubber Market Update (March 17)
Index
On March 17th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2015/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise, with a significant price difference maintained. Tapping has ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand; tapping is gradually ceasing in southern Thailand, leading to a tight supply of raw materials. Factories have restocking needs, driving up procurement prices. Vietnam's production areas are currently in their seasonal off-season, with small-scale trial tapping expected to begin in late March or early April, followed by large-scale tapping across the entire production area in April.
Domestic: Good rubber tree growth in Yunnan's production areas, coupled with rainfall in some areas, has increased ground moisture, contributing to a stronger expectation of earlier tapping this year. Surveys in the production areas show that most began tapping around the 20th, with the earliest factories starting around the 16th, about a week earlier than the same period last year.
Rubber trees in Hainan's production areas are generally growing well, which is conducive to the timely progress of the tapping plan. According to research, the Hainan production area will begin tapping in Lingshui, Wanning, and Baoting by the end of March, with a few areas in Baisha and Danzhou entering trial tapping. The main production areas will gradually begin tapping around the Qingming Festival.
On the demand side: It is understood that most all-steel tire manufacturers are maintaining stable production, with a few companies moderately increasing daily output to make up for pre-price-increase order shortfalls. As of now, some companies that were scheduled to adjust prices on March 16th have officially implemented the price increase policy.
Some companies have received advance payments, and overall, pre-price-increase orders are sufficient. Some companies have also restricted product supply. Overall, the pace of price increases varies among companies, with most adjusting flexibly based on their own profit levels and order situations.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Outlook
Today, futures prices fluctuated within a range, while spot offers remained largely unchanged. Holders showed moderate willingness to offer prices. The low production season overseas boosted raw material procurement prices, and the tapping season in Yunnan is progressing steadily.
Initially, new rubber production is limited, providing strong support on the supply side. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding overseas geopolitics, and the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide-range fluctuations.
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