Natural Rubber Market Update (March 18)
Index
On March 18th, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index was $1980/ton, down $35/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise, with a significant price difference maintained. Tapping has ceased in northern and northeastern Thailand; tapping is gradually ceasing in southern Thailand, leading to a tight supply of raw materials.
Factories have restocking needs, driving up procurement prices. Vietnam's producing areas are currently in their seasonal off-season, with small-scale trial tapping expected to begin in late March or early April, and large-scale tapping commencing across the entire producing area in April.
Domestic: In Yunnan's producing areas, tapping has not yet begun in the Pu'er Jiangcheng area, but has gradually started in the Menglian area and the Lincang Mengding area. Tapping has not yet begun in the Honghe Lüchun area, and a small area in Xishuangbanna has started tapping. Farms in the Mengla area have not yet announced specific tapping times, but some areas with good leaf growth have already started tapping. It is expected that most areas in Mengla will gradually begin tapping in the near future.
The rubber trees in Hainan's production area are generally growing well, which is conducive to the timely progress of the tapping plan. According to surveys, tapping will begin first in Lingshui, Wanning, and Baoting areas of Hainan at the end of March, with a few areas in Baisha and Danzhou entering trial tapping. The main producing areas will gradually begin tapping around the Qingming Festival.
On the demand side: It is understood that most semi-steel tire manufacturers are maintaining high operating rates, with concentrated shipments before the holiday, leading to continued shortages for some companies. Currently, companies are operating at high capacity to make up for previous order gaps. However, exports from some regions still face obstacles, and exports have slowed slightly. The shortage situation is expected to gradually improve.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market fluctuated widely, while spot offers saw a slight decline. The low production season overseas boosted raw material procurement prices, which continued to rise. The tapping pace in Yunnan's production area is progressing steadily. Initially, the supply of new rubber is limited, providing strong support. However, there is still considerable uncertainty in overseas geopolitical relations, and the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide-ranging fluctuations.
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