Natural Rubber Market Update (March 23)
Index
On March 23, the Qingdao STR20 natural rubber price index was $1955/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Raw material procurement prices in Thailand continued to rise, with a significant price difference maintained. Thailand is generally in a state of no tapping, resulting in a tight supply of raw materials. Factories have restocking needs, driving up procurement prices. Vietnam's producing areas are currently in their seasonal off-season, with small-scale trial tapping expected to begin in late March or early April, followed by large-scale tapping across the entire producing area in April.
Domestic: A small increase in production has occurred in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, with processing plants beginning to collect small amounts of rubber.
The rubber trees in Hainan are generally growing well, which is conducive to the timely progress of the tapping plan. According to surveys, tapping will begin first in Lingshui, Wanning, and Baoting areas of Hainan at the end of March, with a few areas in Baisha and Danzhou entering trial tapping. The main producing areas will gradually begin tapping around the Qingming Festival.
On the demand side: It is understood that semi-steel tires and all-steel tires showed significant differences in performance, with finished product inventories fluctuating. On March 16th, large-scale enterprises in Shandong raised prices, boosting downstream restocking for all-steel tires, leading to increased shipments and decreased inventory.
However, price increases by semi-steel tire manufacturers did not significantly stimulate downstream restocking, and export shipments in some regions were restricted, resulting in an increasing inventory level.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the futures market saw a narrow upward adjustment, exhibiting a slightly stronger oscillation. Spot offers rose slightly, while Thai cup rubber prices fell. Weakening overseas cost support, coupled with increased domestic tapping sentiment, created a bearish atmosphere in the market. Downstream buyers remained cautious, inquiries were weak, and overall trading was subdued. Rubber prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.
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