Natural Rubber Price Analysis (June 9)
Analysis of natural rubber market prices on June 9
Index
On June 9, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in Qingdao market was 1710 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton from the previous trading day.
Market analysis
Futures market
Spot market
Supply:
Foreign: Thailand had a lot of rain, and the output of new rubber did not increase significantly. The domestic and foreign futures market was weak, dragging the upstream raw material prices down. Vietnam's production areas have basically started harvesting, gradually transitioning to the seasonal increase stage. Affected by the decline in the spot market during the week, the raw material purchase price weakened, but the range was limited.
Domestic: Weather interference still exists in the Yunnan production area, but the overall raw material volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the phenomenon of rushing to harvest raw materials in processing plants still exists.
Affected by the decline in the current market, the center of gravity of the raw material purchase price continued to weaken during the week; the weather in the Hainan production area was abnormal, and the output of fresh glue showed significant fluctuations. The output of raw materials increased month-on-month, but it was still difficult to meet the production needs of various processing plants. The glue purchase of local processing plants remained at an increased price.
On the demand side: The equipment operation of the maintenance enterprises during the "Dragon Boat Festival" has now returned to normal levels. Some other enterprises have stopped production due to insufficient orders and fluctuations in raw materials, which will drag down the start-up of all-steel tires to a certain extent.
The overall start-up remains weak. Recently, the prices of natural rubber, synthetic rubber, additives, etc. have been reduced, and the weekly profit of tires has increased month-on-month. Some companies have launched promotional policies for shipments, and most continue to wait and see.
List of futures and spot prices
Forecast for the future market
Today, the closing price of the main rubber contract has adjusted narrowly. From the fundamental point of view, although the domestic and foreign production areas are currently facing rainy rubber tapping, the supply increase expectation after the rainy production areas is relatively strong, the raw material price has fallen significantly, and the cost support has been significantly weakened.
On the demand side, the overall order performance of tire companies is average, shipments are slow, and the pace of finished product destocking is slow. The fundamental weakness has increased, and the rubber price is still expected to decline.
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