Natural Rubber Price Steady Supply Outlook

Index

On September 23rd, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,835/ton, stable compared to the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market Supply:

Overseas: Rain disturbances in northeastern Thailand have eased month-on-month, leading to a slight improvement in new rubber release. Factories are unwilling to increase prices, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for raw material cup rubber prices, with the average price declining month-on-month. Continued rainfall in southern Thailand has kept rubber prices firm. Weather in Vietnam's producing areas has improved compared to last week, reducing disruptions to tapping operations, but has not yet returned to normal levels. Inventories in producing areas remain low, and domestic raw material supply pressures persist. To ensure delivery, processing plants are maintaining steady procurement, supporting firm prices.

Domestically, weather disturbances in Yunnan's production areas have eased, and rubber production is gradually returning to normal. Processing plants are experiencing strong purchasing demand, and raw material prices remain firm. Weather conditions in Hainan's production areas are favorable, with limited impact on tapping operations. Raw material production on the island is continuing normally. Despite the impending arrival of Typhoon Hakkar, local processing plants are reluctant to rush to harvest raw materials due to limited orders and limited profit margins.

Demand: It is understood that companies are operating at a generally stable rate, and shipment performance has not seen a significant improvement. Some companies are reportedly planning to suspend operations for the National Day holiday, and it is unclear whether most companies are currently undergoing maintenance. Most companies have sufficient inventory, and shipping pressure remains.

Futures and Spot Prices Overview

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw a volatile and weakening performance. Spot quotes followed the market downward, with limited willingness from holders to sell at low prices, resulting in subdued trading. Downstream stocking has largely concluded, and the pace of spot destocking has slowed. Furthermore, recent typhoon disruptions have heightened market concerns about short-term supply releases. Rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range.

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