Natural Rubber Price Update (December 29)
Index
On December 29th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $1875/ton, down $5/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
Internationally: Weather in Thailand is generally returning to normal, and there are signs of easing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia. Most areas in the northeast are in the peak tapping season, and factories are starting to stockpile raw materials, keeping cup lump prices relatively firm. Supply in the southern producing areas is gradually increasing, dragging down latex prices. Weather in Vietnam is gradually returning to normal, with no extreme weather disrupting tapping operations.
Domestic: Raw material prices in Yunnan are mainly stable, and the producing areas have entered the off-season. In Hainan, some rubber plantations in the western and southern regions are still tapping, with fresh latex dry content at relatively low levels. Local private processing plants are gradually shutting down, and tapping is expected to basically stop in early January and completely cease by mid-January.
Demand Side: It is understood that raw material prices are fluctuating, with cost support remaining. Currently, most all-steel tire manufacturers are maintaining stable pricing policies. There are reports that some brands expect price reductions next month. Channel procurement is currently slow, with the focus on digesting inventory. Market sentiment remains cautious, awaiting further guidance from market demand and raw material prices.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, the main rubber futures contract continued its range-bound trading pattern, with an overall weak performance. Domestic production areas have largely entered the off-season, while overseas production continues at its peak.
Upstream factories are moderately stocking up, limiting the downside potential for raw material prices. There are expectations of reduced overseas shipments arriving at ports, which may slow the accumulation of port inventories, potentially providing short-term support for the natural rubber market.
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