Natural rubber: Prices are rising again (June 16)
Index
On June 16th, the Qingdao STR20 price index for natural rubber was $2390/ton, up $60/ton from the previous trading day.
Market Analysis
Futures Market:
Spot Market
Supply Side:
International: Increased rainfall in southern Thailand led to continued tight latex production, driving up prices. In the northeast, normal production volumes were observed, with factories pressuring for lower raw material prices, putting downward pressure on cup lump prices. Localized showers in Vietnam had little impact on raw material production, and supply remained tight.
Domestic: Sporadic rainfall in Yunnan province resulted in increased overall supply, with factories purchasing small quantities of rubber, strengthening expectations of stable raw material prices. In Hainan province, favorable weather conditions allowed for normal tapping operations, leading to a seasonal increase in raw material production. Local processing plants' willingness to offer higher prices for raw materials weakened.
On the demand side: It is understood that most semi-steel tire manufacturers are affected by reduced export orders and insufficient domestic sales, leading to lower production schedules. While overall shipments are below expectations, and although companies have reduced production to varying degrees, overall inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the pressure on production and sales remains.
A few companies are employing flexible sales policies, resulting in a slight improvement in shipments. However, most companies are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain inventory levels, and some companies may have maintenance schedules in the latter half of the month.
Futures and Spot Prices Overview
Market Forecast
Today, futures prices fluctuated upwards, and natural rubber spot prices rose. Overseas cup lump prices performed strongly, and upstream cost support remains. Qingdao port is again showing signs of destocking, which is beneficial to market trading.
Currently, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and cautious wait-and-see sentiment is rising in the market. Actual transaction volume needs to be followed up. In the short term, the fundamental support for the natural rubber market has strengthened, and rubber prices are showing a temporary upward trend.
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