Natural Rubber Sep 30 Update

Index

On September 30th, the STR20 price index of natural rubber in the Qingdao market was $1,820/ton, down $30/ton from the previous trading day.

Market Analysis

Futures Market:

Spot Market Supply:

Internationally:

Parts of northeastern Thailand continued to experience periodic rainfall disturbances, while weather in southern Thailand improved, with a gradual increase in production. This increased raw material output has weakened raw material prices. Typhoons and rainfall have impacted Vietnamese production areas, reducing glue supply. At the same time, processors are actively fulfilling orders and maintaining strong purchasing activity, supporting an upward trend in glue prices. 

Domestically: Improved weather in Yunnan production areas has led to a gradual increase in production, coupled with a decline in futures and spot prices. Raw material prices in Yunnan have weakened slightly. Weather conditions in Hainan production areas are favorable, allowing for normal raw material production. However, due to limited orders and profit margins, local processors are not enthusiastic about raw material procurement, resulting in minimal fluctuations in raw material prices.

Demand: It is understood that with maintenance work approaching, most maintenance companies are gradually entering the final stages of their operations, resulting in a reduction in tire production and supply. At the end of the month, foreign trade sales remained relatively concentrated, while domestic sales were primarily focused on filling previous orders. Overall, at the end of the month, companies saw reduced production and increased shipments, leading to lower finished goods inventory levels.

Futures and Spot Prices Overview

Market Forecast

Today, the main rubber futures contract saw a volatile decline, with spot quotes following the downward trend. The market was heavily influenced by the holiday season, resulting in relatively low quotations and inquiries.

Expectations of increased raw material production persist, leading to a weakening price trend. Pre-holiday stocking is largely complete, and downstream markets are gradually entering the festive mood. Market trading is subdued, and limited pre-holiday price fluctuations are expected. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to remain volatile.

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